The Latest “Hardest Part”
Alastair Macdonald has written an analysis piece for Reuters titled “After Iraq Vote Success, Now For the Hard Part”. The good news is that MacDonald rightly points out some positives that have happened. The bad news is that he’s quoted some total pessimists rather prominently in the article. Here’s a glimpse at the quotes:
“I’m not over-optimistic,” said Joost Hilterman of the International Crisis Group in Amman, who follows Iraqi affairs. “It’s going to be very hard to change the constitution. Sunnis have supported this not because they are converted to the electoral process but because they hope for influence to roll back what they see as an Iranian advance in Iraq,” he said, referring to Tehran’s support for fellow Shi’ite clerics. “And if they don’t, they’re going to go back to what got them here in the first place, the insurgency. And that’s going to make it very difficult for American troops to leave.”
Hilterman makes it sound like every step is insurmountable, which it clearly isn’t. Yes, changing the Constitution will take hard work but it isn’t like we don’t have proof that each ethnic and religious group isn’t willing to do that hard work. Hilterman would do well to remember how long it took to write the Constitution and to add the Bill of Rights to our Constitution. This is a glimpse at someone with a ‘microwave’ perspective when a ’slow-cooker’ perspective is the right approach.
The other thing that isn’t mentioned here is that success will smoothe over alot of disagreements. In other words, if this coalition government paves the roads, gets the economy strong and stabilized and creates safe streets, then much of the ‘mechanical side’ of governing will be scrutinized less.
Rivals are particularly critical of the present Interior Ministry, which is accused of running militia death squads, and there may be special pressure for a change of leadership there. “The question is whether the Shi’ite parties will take that lying down,” Hilterman said. “There have been hints they will fight…They need to have a sense of still being in power.” Khalilzad, he said, would have his work cut out mediating any such deal, but with voters expectantly waiting rapid action on improving security and public services speed was important. “At this very dangerous stage,” Hilterman said, such a grand coalition “is maybe going to be the best solution”.
While there’s no guarantee that Hilterman’s “grand coalition” will be put together, there were plenty of doubts at each step in the process. That they’ve made it this far in this short of a period of time is something to be seen as reason for optimism, not pessimism.
It should also be noted that the worries about the Interior Ministry will subside when the Iraqi security forces are increased in numbers and proficiency. When their security forces start stomping out the bad guys, perspectives will change.
I’d like to close with something positive from Macdonald’s article:
For Rajaa al-Bhayesh, a political scientist at Baghdad’s Mustansiriya University, fear of wider civil conflict, beyond the likely continuation of violence by fringe groups like al Qaeda, is likely to promote the spirit of compromise. “There will be compromises and a sharing out of jobs because of the general and security situation,” he said.
Cross-posted at LetFreedomRing