Has the Tide Changed?
The question that I can’t get rid of is why Barack Obama didn’t respond more forcefully to Hillary’s 3 AM ad. Sure, he put out a cute little ad shortly thereafter but it was timid. The Obama that took Hillary’s momentum away isn’t the Obama that responded to Hillary’s most direct hit in months.
The ‘old’ Obama would’ve dismissed the ad either as more fearmongering from Team Clinton or as the politics of division, not unity. Instead, Obama chose to respond feebly with this ad:
The Obama camp is even trying to raise expectations for Tuesday night’s primaries:
By their own clear definition of where they expected and believed they needed to be after Ohio and Texas, the Clinton campaign will fall terribly short on March 4th. The Obama pledged delegate lead stands at 162. The question for the Clinton campaign if they do not significantly erode that lead on Tuesday is what plausible path they have to even up the pledged delegates in the remaining contests.
There are 611 pledged delegates left after March 4th’s contests. They would need to win at least 62% of all remaining pledged delegates to get back to even. And while they have often talked about Pennsylvania – where public polls show their lead deteriorating rapidly – the Wyoming caucuses on March 8th and Mississippi primary or March 11th could potentially result in more pledged delegates netted to the winner than on March 4th.
So it is clear that narrow popular vote wins in Texas and Ohio will do very little to improve their nearly impossible path to the nomination. If they do not win Texas and Ohio by healthy double digit margins – and they led by healthy double digit margins as recently as two weeks ago - they will be facing almost impossible odds to reverse the delegate math.
In other words, Obama will say that if Hillary doesn’t win big in Ohio and Texas, that it’s the end of the road for Hillary. They’ll say that she can’t win. The thing is that Obama flinched at a time when Hillary seems to have stemmed Obama’s tide, at least somewhat.
If Hillary wins in Ohio, then Obama will have to fight with her through Pennsylvania at minimum, thereby giving John McCain to define Obama in an unflattering light.
This polling shows that Hillary’s stemmed the tide in Ohio, with Rasmussen showing Hillary with a solid 6 point lead.
The other dynamic that’s changed is that Obama is getting scrutinized alot closer now. His free pass is coming to an end. It’ll be interesting to see how he responds to the pressure. He hasn’t faced much scrutiny up until now. It’s one thing for him to have swatted away Hillary’s desperate barbs. It’s quite another to get hit with alot of probing questions about character and past associations.
That said, I still agree with David Plouffe that it’s a very uphill climb for Hillary but I think the 3AM ad hurt Obama enough to give Hillary something to cling to for hope of pulling off a miracle.
PS- Check back tonight for my liveblogging of Super Tuesday II.
Technorati Tags: Hillary, Obama, Democrats, John McCain, Republicans, Election 2008
Cross-posted at LetFreedomRingBlog
March 4th, 2008 at 12:03 pm
We-ell mebbe something’s turned up in somebodies closet that garnered the tepid response.
Resco’s trial is just starting, and lets not forget who we are dealing with here.
Wouldn’t want to see any unfortunate accidents a la Vince Foster, would we?
Yes, I am cynical. I’ve spent just enough time around Washington enough to be so.
March 4th, 2008 at 12:29 pm
Yes, I, too, am looking forward to seeing how Mr. Obama responds to being under the spotlight with more scrutiny. Below is an article that was on the same page as the polling link above. It was written today by Byron York at National Review Online and is entitled:
“Is Obama Lying About NAFTAGate?
He certainly doesn’t seem to be telling the whole truth.”
Please read through the entire article…it’s good:
http://article.nationalreview.com/?q=MWNjOGQ1MDI4NjViMWQwMGM0MmZkMzNkMzY2NTU2NjY=