Toomey’s Impressive Momentum
Anyone thinking that the health care debate is helping Democrats need only read this post from Salena Zito to have that notion refuted. Here’s the bad news for Democrats:
From Rasmussen Report:
These figures reflect a dramatic reversal since June. At that time, before the public health care debate began, Specter led Toomey by 11.
Just 43 percent now have a favorable opinion of Specter, while 54 percent offer an unfavorable assessment of the longtime GOP senator who became a Democrat rather than face Toomey in a party primary. Those numbers have reversed since June when 53 percent had a favorable opinion of him.
The current figures include 15 percent with a Very Favorable opinion of Specter and 36 percent with a Very Unfavorable view.
Specter has found himself front and center in the health care debate just as support for the reform plan proposed by President Obama and congressional Democrats has fallen to new lows nationwide. In Pennsylvania, 42 percent of voters support the plan, while 53 percent are opposed.
Those who like the congressional health care plan favor Specter 70 percent to 9 percent for Toomey. Those who are against the legislative effort oppose Specter and give Toomey an 82 percent to 9 percent advantage.
If Congressman Joe Sestak is the Democratic nominee instead of Specter, Toomey still leads but by a smaller margin. The polling shows 43 percent for Toomey and 35 percent for Sestak. In June, Sestak had a six-point edge over Toomey.
When Benedict Arlen switched parties, he did so because he was getting his backside handed to him in the potential GOP primary matchup. I suspect Sen. Specter was expecting a coronation. That’s clearly not happening.
I suspect Sen. Specter is having trouble because this just isn’t a triangulation election. I suspect that, when history writes the final chapter on this election, they’ll note that this election was mostly about credibility or the Democrats’ lack thereof. I further suspect that this election will be about whether the candidate is seen as fiscally responsible.
Rasmussen’s polling is perfectly understandable in this context.
Those aren’t the only bad numbers for Sen. Specter and Rep. Sestak. These numbers aren’t likely to put a smile on their faces, either:
Toomey is viewed favorably by 54 percent, Sestak by 40 percent. However, opinions of both men are quite soft. Just 13 percent have a Very Favorable opinion of Toomey, and only 8 percent say the same about Sestak. On the negative side, 11 percent have a Very Unfavorable opinion of Toomey, and an identical number are that negative about Sestak.
Sestak trails Specter by 13 points in the race for the Democratic nomination.
Specter, a longtime GOP senator, switched parties and became a Democrat in April just after a Rasmussen Reports poll in the state showed him trailing Toomey by 21 points in a likely Republican Senate primary match-up. Specter’s team initially dismissed the poll, but later acknowledged that one of the reasons he changed parties was a fear that he might lose his own party’s nomination.
Particularly damaging to Specter among Pennsylvania Republicans was his vote for President Obama’s economic stimulus plan, one of only three cast by Republicans for it.
Eighty percent of Republican voters now favor Toomey in a match-up with Specter, up from 68 percent two months ago. Specter draws 61 percent of the Democratic vote, down from 74 percent in June.
Rep. Toomey’s support might be a bit soft but it’s majority support nonetheless. If I’m Rep. Sestak, I can’t be happy that a turncoat like Arlen Specter has 61% support in the Democratic primary. If this trend continues, it might mean that Democrats might be confronted with a meltdown of support in Pennsylvania. Honestly, if they don’t change the dynamics with appealing substantive proposals, that scenario could play out in Florida, Ohio and Michigan, too.
One thing that hasn’t been discussed is the Obama factor on these races. His declining popularity is making Democrats rethink their re-election strategies. People aren’t willing to support an unpopular president, especially on such a highly passionate issue as health care reform.
Another thing that isn’t getting discussed is the ‘Pelosi Factor’. The definition of the Pelosi Factor is Ms. Pelosi’s dictatorial rule in the House. People aren’t buying into the notion that the health care bill has to get passed ASAP. People would rather get this reform right.
While I’ll quickly admit that this doesn’t directly affect the PA senatorial race, I’d argue that it’s part of the general atmospheric of this cycle. People noticed Speaker Pelosi’s dictatorial management style during the stimulus debate. That’s been re-inforced during the health care debate.
Democrats don’t want to admit it but Americans believe in checks and balances. If a party owned the White House, the House and the Senate, they need to exercise a little common sense. If they do, they can sustain their majority. If that group started overreaching, which this group has done, that majority likely is in its final days.
Put all these things together and you have the conditions where Pat Toomey is leading an incumbent senator.
Technorati Tags: Polling, Pat Toomey, Arlen Specter, Joe Sestak, Health Care, Primaries, Nancy Pelosi
Cross-posted at LetFreedomRingBlog
August 13th, 2009 at 2:29 pm
“If a party owned the White House, the House and the Senate, they need to exercise a little common sense.”
Kinda sounds like the jackass wannabees back during GW’s first term, doesn’t it? And we all know how that turned out.
Now, the Republicans not only need to win but also keep giving us good reasons to keep them in place after they are elected. Otherwise, people are going to go back to voting for the real socialists, not the “lite” off-brand.
August 13th, 2009 at 3:01 pm
Not only are they going to have to win, Carlos, but any body running against a Democrat is going to have to win by recount proof numbers.
With the goons and thugs from SEIU and Acorn out in force, at least 60%, or more.
There should be no doubt whatsoever, who lost and who won. The days of 50% plus 1 are over.