California Conservative

H/T Gary Miller at KvM

It seems that the tightening of polls is casting serious doubt on tonight’s election. Here’s something worth reading:

He laid out what he thought were some interesting indicators: Three major polls, all showing the generic ballot lead for the Democrats cut in half. His pollster of choice, Andrew Kohut at Pew (formerly with Gallup), wrote a summary of findings that has a fascinating tone:
The narrowing of the Democratic lead raises questions about whether the party will win a large enough share of the popular vote to recapture control of the House of Representatives. The relationship between a party’s share of the popular vote and the number of seats it wins is less certain than it once was, in large part because of the increasing prevalence of safe seat redistricting. As a result, forecasting seat gains from national surveys has become more difficult.
The Republicans also have made major gains, in a relatively short time period, among independent voters. Since early this year, the Democratic advantage in the generic House ballot has been built largely on a solid lead among independents.
Moreover, Republicans have gained ground in recent weeks on measures aimed at assessing a voter’s likelihood of voting. So while Pew polls in early October and mid-October showed virtually no change in the Democratic advantage between all voters and those most likely to turn out, the current survey shows the Democrats’ eight-point lead among all registered voters narrowing considerably among likely voters. In this regard, the current campaign more closely resembles previous midterm elections since 1994, when Republicans also fared better among likely voters than among all registered voters.
As the New Republic editors noted, the poll showed a particularly surprising drop in the Democratic generic ballot advantage in the Northeast, from a 26 point margin to a 9 point one.
Where are the House seats the Democrats want to pick up? Yes, some in Indiana and Kentucky, but quite a few are in Connecticut, New York, and Pennsylvania (and, apparently at one point, New Hampshire).
[Jim’s observation/question: If the bottom fell out for Democrats in blue states like these, how likely is it that their candidates are holding their ground in red states like Indiana and Kentucky?]

Simply put, I think that the tale that’s being told is that of ‘The Kerry Factor’. Democrats are losing ground with independents in a hurry. Here’s what I first posted:

I haven’t seen many opinionists talking about something that I’ll name the ‘Kerry Factor’. Here’s what I mean:

As a political junkie, I remember watching Frank Luntz doing the focus groups on MSNBC during the Bush-Gore debates. What those focus groups taught me was that they didn’t like confrontation or negativity. Let’s transfer that to today’s version of those Luntz focus groups– independent voters.

I suspect that they won’t buy Kerry’s statement that he wasn’t talking about the military. Further, I suspect that they’ve already started abandoning Democrats. Don’t be surprised if Democrats experience an erosion with independant voters from now till election day.

I forwarded that post to the RNC. Here’s what they included in one of their posts at GOP.com:

OTHER EVIDENCE OF MOMENTUM.

• The ABC/Washington Post poll shows Republicans gaining on handling of Iraq (+8) and Personal Values (+12).
• The Kerry Factor — John Kerry’s “stuck in Iraq” remark has attracted the attention of eighty-four percent of voters, and 19%—including 18% of independents—say it has raised serious doubts about voting for their local Democratic candidates.

Let’s be blunt about something: John Kerry’s “botched joke” has moved independents in sizeable numbers. I predicted that there would be plenty of conspiracy theories if Democrats didn’t retake the House. I’m revising that slightly to say that they’ll be either spouting conspiracy theories or ripping John Kerry to shreds. OR BOTH!!!

Technorati Tags: Election 2006, The Kerry Factor, Independents, RNC

Cross-posted at LetFreedomRingBlog

This entry was posted on Tuesday, November 7th, 2006 at 12:06 pm and is filed under Author: Gary Gross, Elections, Iraq, Military, W. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.