Iraqi Victory, American Achievement
Walid Phares, one of the pre-eminent authorities on the Middle East has weighed in with his opinion on the latest Iraqi election. His views are definitely cause for optimism. Here’s some of the reasons for optimisism:
Security Victory
With 155,000 American troops, 22,000 coalition forces, and about 200,000 Iraqi soldiers and policemen, deployed efficiently, Iraq’s territories have been secured by significant deterrent forces. The Jihadists and their cross-borders allies, who have been attempting to wage massive attacks since mid-summer, were denied the capacity to disrupt the voting process. That alone is a field victory for the US-Iraqi alliance: For a second time in one year, the Iraqi people were allowed to express its will freely, while Jihad terror was incapable of reversing the democratic process.Moreover, on October 15, the military defense of Iraq registered higher scores: Between last January and October, more than 130,000 Iraqi troops who guarded the legislative elections were trained, equipped and strengthened with another 60,000 before being deployed on the ground for the referendum protection. The credit of this achievement goes certainly to U.S., but also NATO, forces, which were able to equip the “new Republic” with arms and muscles within less than one year. It paid off clearly, for even while al Qaida was recruiting within Iraq, and reinforced via Syria with thousands of Terrorists, the qualitative and quantitative race was obviously won by the U.S.-sponsored Iraqi army. After two-and-a-half years of terror-insurgency, Abu Musab al Zarqawi’s networks weren’t able to stop or defeat the new Iraq’s defenses. The success of the referendum is clear evidence: There was a security victory in Iraq.
This is really the biggest victory in Saturday’s elections with regards to drawing down American forces later this year. That said, I’ll predict that the Agenda Media will cast in the most negative light the withdrawal of American troops as proof that Americans are cutting their losses. There’s no way they’ll admit that it’s proof of the President’s successful strategy for winning the war in Iraq.
Based on this information, I’d have to think that it’s likely that American forces will be drawn down starting this spring or early summer at latest. By that time, more Iraqi defense forces will be operational with minimal American assistance. In fact, we’re already hearing reports of that. Expect the actual progress to speed up on a month-by-month basis. Expect the Agenda Media’s reporting of that progress to stay stuck in ‘full-pessimism mode’, though.
The Distribution of Oil Dividends
The current constitution provides a ratio for benefits from oil production. The bottom line is simple: in the past, Saddam Hussein robbed the country and used the money to buy weapons and to send Iraqi soldiers into bloody campaigns against Iran, Kuwait and the Kurds and Shiites. Future revenues will be used to help the marginal regions (mostly Shiites and Kurdish) to grow economically. But the Sunni areas will benefit as well. A federal Iraq is designed to have a national authority to administer the country-level development. The Sunnis, situated geographically in the center, are also in the center of Iraq’s educational, economic and social life. They will be part of the oil economic renaissance. Under a modern federal Iraq, a Sunni middle class has a greater chance of benefiting from “a national growth” than under a Saddam mono-party regime or a Taliban-like system.
This ‘benefit’ will become clear to Sunnis in the center of Iraq. They’re about to see that the emerging democratic Iraqi model will benefit them quite handsomely. They’ll notice when the oil revenues start pouring in and they see the difference that makes in their infrastructure and government services.
At the end of the day, those two things, being safe from tyrants and terrorists and being better off financially, will do much to transform this region into a thriving picture of democracy that the entire region will want for their governments.
Cross-posted at Let Freedom Ring