Will 2010 Be Another Big Democratic Year?
Last night, one of the guests on Greta’s show said that this figured to be another difficult year for Republicans. That doesn’t fit with Rasmussen’s recent generic ballot polling:
For just the second time in more than five years of daily or weekly tracking, Republicans now lead Democrats in the latest edition of the Generic Congressional Ballot.
A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey found that 41% would vote for their district’s Republican candidate while 38% would choose the Democrat. Thirty-one percent (31%) of conservative Democrats said they would vote for their district’s Republican candidate.
I don’t doubt that that last sentence is giving Democratic strategists gray hair. Though there’s no doubt that we’ll see fluctuations between now and Election Day 2010, there’s also no doubt that the Democrats have misread the electorate. The Democrats’ misreading the election results has helped put the GOP in better shape than we’ve been in a long time.
I credit the change in the generic ballot to three things: President Obama’s radical agenda, President Obama’s arrogance and the House Republicans’ principled stand against Obama’s radical agenda. Obama’s radical agenda has given conservatives something to fight against while the House Republicans’ principled stance against that agenda is giving conservatives something to fight for.
This information matters, too:
Democrats began the year holding a six- or seven-point lead over the GOP for the first several weeks of 2009.
For a party that’s supposedly riding high after Benedict Arlen’s defection, that’s an awfully big swing in a negative direction for the D’s. It isn’t a stretch to think that this trend will continue.
Dick Morris, who considers Rasmussen to be the best public pollster, thinks that Obama’s approval ratings won’t last:
When the Obama administration crashes and burns, with approval ratings that fall through the floor, political scientists can trace its demise to its first hundred days. While Americans are careful not to consign a presidency they desperately need to succeed to the dustbin of history, the fact is that this president has moved, on issue after issue, in precisely the opposite direction of what the people want him to do.
Right now, Obama’s ratings must be pleasing to his eye. Voters like him and his wife immensely and approve of his activism in the face of the economic crisis. While polls show big doubts about what he is doing, the overwhelming sense is to let him have his way and pray that it works.
But beneath this superficial support, Obama’s specific policies run afoul of the very deeply felt convictions of American voters. For example, the most recent Rasmussen Poll asked voters if they wanted an economic system of complete free enterprise or preferred more government involvement in managing the economy. By 77-19, they voted against a government role, up seven points from last month.
And in the Fox News poll, the very same survey that gave Obama a 62 percent approval rating and reported that 68 percent of voters are “satisfied” with his first hundred days, voters, by 50-38, supported a smaller government that offered fewer services over a larger government that provided more.
That’s the type of base that the GOP can build on. If the GOP wants to become the majority party again, they need to be two things: the party of fiscal sanity and the party that actually listens to We The People. (More than anything else, that’s what drove the Tea Party movement.)
There’s alot of work to be done to rebuild the party but I’m encouraged by what’s happened locally the last month.
Anyone thinking that this will be another big year for the Democrats simply isn’t paying attention to the warning signs.
Technorati Tags: Polling, Generic Ballot, Democrats, Republicans, Tea Parties, President Obama, Arrogance, Election 2010
Cross-posted at LetFreedomRingBlog
April 29th, 2009 at 9:58 am
Its hard to find a beltway media talking head these days that isnt just giddy as hell and slobbering all over themselves about Obama, Arlan Spectre’s “startling” defection, and how remarkably out of touch Republicans are. It’s all the rage you know? The honeymoon is in definately in full bloom.
While there may be a silver lining in all this for the Republicans when reality finally begins reassert itself as it usually does, 2010 is still a ways off. Obama has another year, at least to blame Bush and show some results.
April 29th, 2009 at 10:43 am
2010 should be a big year for the GOP provided that Republicans once again present themselves as conservatives.
The inflation that is sure to rear its ugly head in 2010 will be Obama’s tax on the middle class. Inflation is a tax because it is the direct result of government spending and borrowing. The GOP has got to start making this case now.