Trouble Looming for Obama?
Yesterday, I read Richard Baehr’s article for the American Thinker website about the electoral race. I found his thinking compelling. Today, TNR’s John Judis has penned a similar article. First, let’s read the heart of Mr. Judis’ article:
To win in November, a Democratic presidential candidate has to carry most of the industrial heartland states that stretch from Pennsylvania to Missouri. That becomes even more imperative if a Democrat can’t carry Florida–and because of his relative weakness in South Florida, Obama is unlikely to do so against McCain. Ruy Teixeira and I have calculated that in the heartland states, a Democratic presidential candidate has to win from 45 to 48 percent of the white working class vote. In some states, like West Virginia and Kentucky, the percentage is well over a majority.
Some Democrats insist that Obama need not worry about these states because he will be able to make up for a defeat in Ohio or even Pennsylvania with a victory in Virginia or Colorado. But in Virginia, McCain will be able to draw upon coastal suburbanites closely tied to the military. These voters backed Democrats like Chuck Robb and Jim Webb, who are both veterans, but they may not go for Obama. And in the Southwest, McCain will be able to challenge Obama among Hispanics. So to win in November, Obama will have to win almost all of these heartland states. Which is a problem, because even before he uttered his infamous words about these voters “clinging” to guns, religion, abortion, and fears about free trade, Obama looked vulnerable in the region. A look at the white working class’s relationship with earlier Democratic candidates underscores the various reasons why.
Let’s compare that with Mr. Baehr’s observations:
The Electoral math looks this way: if Florida and Ohio are safe for McCain, and Virginia and Missouri are too, as they now all appear to be, then McCain has a base of 260 Electoral College votes of the 270 he needs to win. He would need to only win 10 from among the states Bush won last time that are in play this year: Colorado (currently tied), New Mexico (3 point Obama lead), Iowa (4 point Obama lead) and Nevada (4 point Obama lead), and several tempting blue states in which McCain is currently competitive: Michigan (18), Pennsylvania (21), New Jersey (15) Wisconsin (10), Minnesota (10), Oregon (7), and New Hampshire (4), among them.
McCain currently is narrowly ahead of Obama in New Hampshire, New Jersey, Wisconsin and Michigan, and behind in the others. A Marist survey last week shocked many by showing McCain ahead of Obama by 2% in New York State (an 18% Kerry win in 2004). If McCain is within 10% of winning in New York in November, he will not need the state to win the election, for he likely will have won most or all of the blue states on his target list above.
Going into this election cycle, I worried about Democrats picking off Ohio, Virginia and Colorado. I also figured that McCain would regain New Hampshire but lose Iowa. That would’ve been more than enough to get the Democratic candidate to 270. Because of McCain’s strength within the military, Virginia has effectively been taken off the map. I’m also feeling optimistic about Michigan and Pennsylvania because Obama’s elitism won’t play well with the blue collar Democrats formerly known as Reagan Democrats.
I’ve long maintained that the general election is where the Pastor J-Writght issue will hurt Obama the most. Based on this information, I see nothing to change my opinion.
Technorati Tags: John McCain, Hillary, Obama, Electoral Map, Red States, Blue States, Elitism, Reagan Democrats, Jeremiah Wright, Election 2008
Cross-posted at LetFreedomRingBlog