Punditry 101
The American Prospect is going where no other pundit will go. In fact, Terence Samuel’s prediction is the opposite of what Sen. Obama is predicting. First, here’s what Obama said on the radio Monday:
Obama on KDKA radio in Pittsburgh this morning:
“I’m not predicting a win. I’m predicting it’s going to be close and that we are going to do a lot better than people expect,” he says (audio).
Clinton began the Pennsylvania primary with a lead of more than 16 percentage points in the RealClearPolitics polling average; her lead now stands around 5 points.
Here’s the opening to Samuel’s column:
That creaking noise you hear is the sound of me going way out on limb to predict that Barack Obama will win the Pennsylvania primary on Tuesday, finally ending Hillary Clinton’s presidential ambitions.
After all sound and fury, the race in Pennsylvania will come down to the strength of get- out-the-vote (GOTV) operations, and I think Obama’s campaign’s organizational advantages will be enough to push him past Clinton by almost two percentage points. He’s got money, he’s got energy and enthusiasm (despite his debate performance on Tuesday), and he’s got Philadelphia and its suburbs.
This is delusional thinking on Samuel’s behalf. Political experts like Rick Santorum, Carl Rove and Newt Gingrich are predicting a Hillary win, with the margin being anywhere from 6 points to 10-11 points.
Sunday night, I spoke with a friend of mine in Pennsylvania. My friend said that Obama’s statements at the San Francisco fundraiser were like manna from heaven for Hillary. She was already winning blue collar Democrats. Sen. Obama’s statements just increased her advantage in that demographic. Instead of getting solidly thrashed in that demographic, he’ll get utterly trounced in that demographic. Here’s another absurd Samuel’s statement:
The path to an Obama win is relatively straight forward: run up the numbers in and around Philadelphia, fight for and maybe even win the Lehigh Valley cities Bethlehem and Allentown, and minimize his losses in the west. This is a strategy that tracks with Democratic victories in Pennsylvania in recent years.
Steel mill towns won’t be going for Sen. Obama. That’s wishful thinking. It certainly isn’t reality-based.
It’s just my opinion but I think Mr. Samuel’s opinions should be supported with more facts than with wishful thinking.
Technorati Tags: Obama, Pennsylvania Primary, Hillary, Bethlehem, Allentown, Unions, Election 2008
Cross-posted at LetFreedomRingBlog