Is the Baucus Bill Doomed Already?
Sen. Max Baucus’s bill was introduced less than 36 hours ago and it’s already taken two major hits…from Democrats. Sen. Wyden, (D-OR), has already raised major objections to Sen. Baucus’s bill. Not to be outdone, Sen. Rockefeller, (D-WVA), has announced that he won’t vote for the bill as it’s currently written:
West Virginia Sen. John D. Rockefeller IV, the second-ranking Democrat on the Senate Finance Committee, said Tuesday he will oppose the proposal from Chairman Max Baucus, Montana Democrat, unless dramatic changes are made to the legislation. Mr. Rockefeller cited in particular the absence of a taxpayer-financed public insurance plan to compete with private insurers.
During Tuesday night’s panel, Charles Krauthammer said that the Baucus bill was the most transparent bill of all the legislation crafted by Democrats. He said that it didn’t hide the cost of the bill. Then he said that the bill will fail because of all the tax increases included in the bill.
The CBO said that the bill as currently configured was deficit neutral. Unfortunately, the only reason that it’s neutral is because of it mandates individuals to purchase insurance. The CBO said that that provision would have the same effect as increasing federal taxes by 13 points. That’s the bad news for Democrats. The worst news is that that tax increase is aimed directly at the middle class and small businesses.
The Senate’s leading health care proposal is seriously flawed, Oregon Sen. Ron Wyden said Tuesday, declaring that it fails to fulfill President Barack Obama’s primary reforms and could force millions of Americans to pay more for the medical care they receive.
“Under this bill as it is written now, more than 200 million Americans would not get choices like the president of the United States called for,” Wyden said in an interview. “Middle-class people certainly will pay more, based on the draft we’re seeing.”
While it’s true that Sen. Baucus can claim that the bill is deficit-neutral as it’s currently configured, that configuration is sure to be challenged. There’s been talk that another option that’s being considered is offering subsidies to families that are forced to purchase insurance. If that option is passed instead, then the bill isn’t deficit-neutral anymore. It’s a classic case of damned-if-you-do, damned-if-you-don’t.
At this point, it’s difficult picturing a scenario that gets a sweeping reform bill passed. The one possibility is the one that hasn’t been tried yet: actually trying to work with Republicans on a bipartisan bill. David Espo’s observation exposes the problem:
Despite numerous gestures to Republicans, Baucus fell short in his quest to assemble a coalition of senators from both parties behind his plan.
I suspect that Mr. Espo’s statement wasn’t intended to expose the Democrats’ reform efforts. It’s just what happened. Had Sen. Baucus offered to include key provisions in the bill that conservatives are insisting on, he might’ve attracted Republican support. This isn’t just Sen. Baucus’s problem, either. It’s the same problem Democrats face in the House, too.
These problems pale in comparison to the fight that’d happen if the Senate tries using reconciliation to pass health care reform. Tonight on Hannity, Speaker Gingrich said that he’s been told that there are so many points of order that would be launched that the resulting legislation would be totally incoherent. If that’s true, and I’ll trust Mr. Newt that it is, then the Democrats’ uphill fight just got infinitely more challenging.
That’s before considering the fact that President Obama is trying to sell something that the American people aren’t interested in buying. Rightly or wrongly, the American people think that the Democrats’ health care reform bills will either add hundreds of billions of dollars to the deficits or it will trigger massive middle class tax increases or rationing of health care for seniors on Medicare or a combination of these things.
That isn’t how to win elections and influence legislators.
Technorati Tags: Max Baucus, Ron Wyden, Jay Rockefeller, Health Care, Medicare, Rationing, Tax Increases, Reconciliation, Democrats, Newt Gingrich, Bipartisanship
Cross-posted at LetFreedomRingBlog