California Conservative

This Michael Barone post suggests that there’s a momentum shift happening in the electorate. Here’s what Mr. Barone is reporting:

Yesterday I noted that Republicans are doing better in polls on the generic ballot question—which party’s candidate would you vote for in congressional races—better, Scott Rasmussen tells me, in his polls than they have done since January 2004. Now I see that Republican candidates lead in Bill Ballenger’s Inside Michigan Politics poll for governor of Michigan. This is at least a little startling. Barack Obama carried Michigan 57-41 percent and in 2006 Democratic Gov. Jennifer Granholm, ineligible to run in 2010, won her second term in 2006 by a margin of 56-42 percent and Democratic Sen. Debbie Stabenow was reelected by a margin of 57-41 percent: a pretty clear pattern. But now Democratic Lt. Gov. John Cherry seems to be running behind Republicans like Attorney General Mike Cox and Rep. Pete Hoekstra—with none of the three particularly well known to most Michigan voters.

Mr. Barone uses this post to point out that these polling results are being caused by massive movement away from the Democrats:

Some significant bloc of voters, heavily loaded toward independents, seem to have soured on the Democrats since Barack Obama took office and the 111th Congress went to work. How would this translate into votes in actual elections? Probably in the way we’ve seen in the special elections that have been held since November: the Senate runoff in Georgia, the two Louisiana House runoffs, three special elections for Virginia House of Delegate seats, the chairmanship of the Fairfax County Board of Supervisors, and the election of a new supervisor in Fairfax’s Braddock district. These, by the way, can’t be dismissed as purely Southern results; one of the House of Delegates seats and the two Fairfax races are in Northern Virginia, which voted heavily for Barack Obama in November 2008.

I think that one thing that’s contributed mightily to the D’s decline is that they haven’t focused on solving problems. The stimulus bill could’ve been that vehicle for them but they chose instead to fill that bill with unconscionable amounts of pork. Once the House bill was published and bloggers started reading through it, people were appalled that the bill wasn’t more about cutting taxes and building roads.

The people were told that we faced an economic crisis. Had the Democrats made a good faith effort to jumpstart the economy, they’d still be leading the generic ballot question and President Obama’s approval rating would likely still be high. Instead, they chose to overreach. Now they’re paying the price for their overreaching.

Another thing that isn’t helping them is President Obama’s growing image that he’s more show horse than workhorse. I’ve heard people questioning whether he’s a narcissist. (I think he is.) Giggling his way through his 60 Minutes interview didn’t help President Obama’s image or the Democrats’ image.

If the Democrats don’t get serious about solving problems, they’ll soon have real troubles, especially if the House Republicans’ budget alternative is appealing.

Technorati Tags: Polling, Generic Ballot, John Cherry, Election 2010, President Obama, Stimulus Bill, Pork, Democrats, Peter Hoekstra, Republicans