An Upset in the Making?
Since the 2006 midterms, the GOP has been a little like the character in Lil Abner with the perpetual rain cloud hovering over his head. This year’s elections didn’t do alot to change that mood. The good news is that there’s a distinct possibility that the GOP might pick off William ‘Cold Cash’ Jefferson in today’s runoff election:
Normally, we wouldn’t have a prayer in LA-2. Except for one thing: the incumbent is Wiliam “Freezer Cash” Jefferson. And recent polling shows Republican Joseph Cao actually has a chance to knock off Jefferson. An internal Republican poll shows Cao leading Jefferson 50-35, with Jefferson at 60 percent unfavorables (significant because Jefferson retains a base of support in the African American community). Quin Hillyer has been tracking this race for the Spectator.
Any incumbent politician whose JA rating is in the mid-thirties and whose unfavorables are in the sixties is in for a fight and then some. I won’t predict the outcome of this race but it’s worth thinking about the next time people start thinking that some seats will forever be red or blue. (Minnesota’s Fifth District comes to mind.)
Patrick Ruffini supplies this strategy advice:
This is Exhibit A of why we need a 435 district strategy. Yes, we need to be focused on our traditional targets. We saw how replacing Woody Jenkins with Bill Cassidy made all the difference in LA-6. But we can’t be playing defense all the time. Congressional races can be surprisingly nonpartisan if the incumbent is corrupt or has other liabilities. We can pick off 60-40 and 70-30 Democrat seats if we focus on getting the right candidates with some level of professional staffing. (And I wouldn’t be surprised if LA-2 wound up being even more lopsided than that.)
One lesson I’d take from this is that recruiting quality candidates matters. Another lesson I’d take from this runoff is that solid candidates are easier to fundraise for. It isn’t possible for a Republican to defeat a Democrat in a solidly blue district if he didn’t have adequate financial support.
For those of you who haven’t checked out Patrick’s 435 District plan, it’s today’s must reading. In fact, check out RebuildTheParty.com when you have the time. In fact, I’d suggest that you make time to read it.
Technorati Tags: William Jefferson, Joseph Cao, Runoff, Corruption, 435 District Strategy, Election 2008
Cross-posted at LetFreedomRingBlog
December 6th, 2008 at 3:21 pm
I’ll allow myself very guarded optimism.
I thought Bill Russell really had a shot at Murtha, and look how that turned out.