A Little Dip Or a Big Fall?
If Ted Strickland’s JA rating keeps dropping like it’s done the last two months, they’ll need a microscope to find it. Accoring to this Columbus Dispatch article, Gov. Strickland’s approval rating is dropping precipitously:
Strickland’s approval rating has plummeted by 11 points in the last two months and Ohioans now give him a thumbs down on the way he is performing his job, including that he has failed to keep his campaign promises, according to a poll released this morning by the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.
If I was advising the Strickland campaign right now, I’d probably be telling him he’d better change dramatically. I’d tell him that this next polling is more troubling than the 11 point plunge:
Troubling signs for Strickland include that Ohio voters by 53-33 disapprove of his handling of the economy, and they disapprove of the way he is handling the state budget by a nearly identical margin, 53-32.
This isn’t an isolated situation. President Obama’s rating on the economy is tanking, too. If these trends continue, the GOP could be looking at a pretty good year in 2010.
At this point, I’m counting Ohio as a GOP pickup. Ted Strickland is a cookie-cutter politician. They’re a dime a dozen. John Kasich is a charismatic, once in a generation type of politician. More importantly, John Kasich’s record of reform and fiscal restraint are exactly the types of things that voters in 2010 will be looking for.
With Ohio’s economy struggling, the argument should and will be made that Ohio can’t afford another 4 years of Strickland’s incompetence. I suspect that, once it’s framed that way, John Kasich will open an outside-the-margin-of-error lead, a lead that he won’t relinquish.
There’s something that Mr. Kasich has done well thus far that will help him later in the race. His RechargeOhio website and his travels thoughout Ohio have reintroduced him to Ohio.
One thing that challengers often have trouble doing is fundraising. That won’t be a worry for Kasich. He’s a proven fundraiser with national connections. Don’t be surprised if he raises more money than Strickland.
Something else that’s working in John Kasich’s favor is that the top-of-the-ticket slots are filled with great GOP candidates. Starting with John Kasich at the top is great but then there’s Rob Portman running to hold the seat currently held by George Voinovich, then former Sen. Mike DeWine running for Attorney General.
That’s as close to an all star lineup as you’ll find in any state this cycle. By far.
Finally, let’s remember 2004. It’s important because that’s the last time the Ohio GOP was this jazzed. That year, Ohio turned out in droves in the suburbs and especially the exurbs. That’s what gave GWB his margin of victory in Ohio.
I remember reading numerous posts in 2004 talking about how many volunteers turned out to help with President Bush’s GOTV operation. I remember reading a post somewhere that said there were so many volunteers turning out for President Bush that they started shipping them to Pennsylvania to help out. Unless I’m totally misreading the situation, I think that’s what’s happening again.
These findings can’t put a smile on Strickland’s face either:
“Strickland’s extremely sharp drop-off in so short a time reflects growing public frustration,” Brown said. “Voters don’t see the economy improving and have decided that after almost three years in office they should start holding Ted Strickland at least partially responsible. The question now is whether this is the start of a larger move or just a temporary reaction.
There comes a time when people understand that a person’s solutions have either worked or failed. It’s becoming obvious to Ohioans that Strickland’s plans haven’t succeeded. Once a politician has lost his constituents’ trust, the path forward becomes increasingly uphill.
Couple that with John Kasich’s resume of cutting federal taxes while balancing the federal budget and Strickland’s fight likely goes from uphill to scaling the Tetons without hiking boots. That isn’t impossible but it’s a serious uphill challenge.
Strickland swept into office in 2006, with a corruption-riddled Republican governor in office and with a strong Democratic headwind. Now Strickland’s running for re-election at a time when people are losing faith in the Democrat president’s economic plan and at a time when the only significant issue to be debated is the economy.
I’d wish Gov. Strickland good luck but I’d rather see him fail in his re-election bid. He’s done next to nothing in getting Ohio’s economy running right.
Technorati Tags: Economy, Deficits, Ted Strickland, Recession, President Obama, Democrats, John Kasich, Surpluses, Reforms, Tax Cuts, Conservatives, Election 2010
Cross-posted at LetFreedomRingBlog