California Conservative

Let’s start with the House since that’s where most pundits are predicting doom for the GOP. I’ll work off the RCP chart provided here:

GOP Seats
Leans Dem (13)
AZ-8: Open (Kolbe)
Gary Sez: Graf wins on immigration issue. Tucson’s budget getting hit hard paying for schooling, health care of illegal immigrants.
CO-7: Open (Beauprez)
Gary Sez: Definitely vulnerable. This could stay in GOP column with strong GOTV operation, which wouldn’t surprise me.
OH-18: Open (Ney)
Gary Sez: Joy Padgett is a fiscal conservative who’d keep taxes low, spending under control and who’s right on the immigration issue. Additional factor: Ney won in 04 with 65+ percent of vote. Demographics still matter. GOP Hold.
PA-7: Weldon
Gary Sez: This is likely lost.
IN-8: Hostettler
Gary Sez: Hostettler’s had a history of close races & he’s always won. Will this be the year he doesn’t win? Possible but don’t count Hostettler out because of the GOP’s GOTV operation.
IA-1: Open (Nussle)
Gary Sez: I suspect that this will tip in the GOP’s favor. The only reliable polling on this race was one done for the NRCC in early October showing Whalen leading by 8. Since then, the election nationwide is trending strongly GOP so I see no reason to believe Braley will win this one.
NY-24: Open (Boehlert)
Gary Sez: Arcuri’s got serious ethical problems, meaning he’s fighting uphill at best. I’m betting this is a GOP Hold.
NY-20: Sweeney
Gary Sez: GOP Hold here. Sienna ran 2 polls; 10/17/06 Siena College R +14 53% 39%; 11/2/06 Siena College D +3 46% 43% 628 LV. Almost all other polling showed Sweeney with solid leads. I also find it impossible to believe that an incumbent loses 17 points in 2 weeks without making a noteworthy gaffe or via scandal. That hasn’t happened.
PA-10: Sherwood
Gary Sez: Likely Dem pickup although President Bush’s stop put the wood to Democrats on taxes and terrorism.
TX-22: Open (DeLay)
Gary Sez: Sekula-Gibbs wins this one.
NC-11: Taylor
Gary Sez: Tight race but Taylor pulls it out.
OH-15: Pryce
Gary Sez: Likely Dem pickup.
FL-16: Open (Foley)
Gary Sez: GOP enjoys punching Foley for Joe. Joe wins.

Toss Up (14)
NH-2: Bass
Gary Sez: GOP Hold
IN-2: Chocola
Gary Sez: Most polling shows Chocola trailing within MOE. A strong GOTV effort will put Chocola over the top.
FL-13: Open (Harris)
Gary Sez: This is still Jeb’s state & he’s built a model GOTV operation. GOP Hold.
NM-1: Wilson
Gary Sez: GOP Hold. Independents tipping GOP’s way after Kerry’s “botched joke.”
OH-1: Chabot
Gary Sez: Might be pulled under by GOP scandals. If they don’t, Chabot wins this.
CT-4: Shays
Gary Sez: GOP Hold. Independents fleeing Democratic Party over Kerry’s ‘botched joke.’
IN-9: Sodrel
Gary Sez: GOP Hold. Independents fleeing Democratic Party over Kerry’s ‘botched joke.’
IL-6: Open (Hyde)
Gary Sez: GOP Hold. Independents fleeing Democratic Party over Kerry’s ‘botched joke.’
PA-6: Gerlach
Gary Sez: GOP Hold. Independents fleeing Democratic Party over Kerry’s ‘botched joke.’
AZ-5: Hayworth
Gary Sez: Hayworth wins by solid margin, probably in 6-8 point range.
CT-5: Johnson
Gary Sez: GOP Hold. Independents fleeing Democratic Party over Kerry’s ‘botched joke.’ Also being helped by GOP voting for Lieberman.
CA-11: Pombo
Gary Sez: GOP Hold. Independents fleeing Democratic Party over Kerry’s ‘botched joke.’
OH-2: Schmidt
Gary Sez: Ran a lackluster campaign for special election but won over lots of people for giving John Murtha what for about Marines never quit. Schmidt wins this one.
KY-3: Northup
Gary Sez: Anne Northup keeps winning.

Democratic Seats
Toss Up (2)
GA-12: Barrow
Gary Sez: GOP win.
GA-8: Marshall
Gary Sez: GOP win.

Gary’s Special: Diana Irey boots Murtha, winning 53-55% of vote. Congratulations, Diana, on being this year’s Goliath-killer.

Overall, I see the GOP holding losses to a minimum in the House, possibly as little as -2.

Senate:
Missouri: Talent vs. McCaskill
Gary Sez: Talent wins because of superior GOTV operation and because ACORN’s voter registration fraud was caught.
Montana: Tester vs. Burns
Gary Sez: Burns wins with a furious finish. Taxes & judicial confirmations key issues in this race.
Virginia: Allen vs. Webb
Gary Sez: Allen wins tight match.
Maryland: Cardin vs. Steele
Gary Sez: Congratulations Sen.-Elect Steele. GOP pickup.
RI: Chafee vs. Whitehouse
Gary Sez: Chafee wins because of Kerry glitch and great GOTV effort.
Michigan: Stabenow vs. Bouchard
Gary Sez: Bouchard in a late night win. Rove told Hugh that “Bouchard in particular, is a very attractive candidate for the Senate, because he’s the sheriff of Oakland County, the large suburban, one of the large suburban counties outside of Detroit. It’s the quintessential swing county in the state. If a Republican wins statewide, it is because they do well in Oakland County. He’s the sheriff. He also previously served in the legislature, where he was an accomplished legislator. So he understands the legislative process, and he’s got a big suburban base.”
Ohio: DeWine vs. Brown
Gary Sez: Brown shouldn’t have a shot but likely will win.
Pennsylvania: Santorum vs. the ultimate nothing
Gary Sez: The Beltway pundits say this race is over but they haven’t talked at all about Santorum’s ‘Gathering Storm’ series of speeches, coupled with massive GOP voter registration drives wherever he’s gone. I can’t write Sen. Santorum off.
Minnesota: Klobuchar vs. the Good Kennedy
Gary Sez: Minnesota’s GOTV operation is hitting on all cylinders and Klobuchar’s imploding because she won’t expand beyond focus-grouped soundbite answers. GOP gain.
Tennesee: Ford vs. Corker
Gary Sez: Ford’s had too many implosions. GOP Hold.

Senate: GOP gains 2.

If the election were held next Tuesday and if the GOP’s momentum could be sustained another week, we’d see gains in both houses of Congress. Oh well.

Technorati Tags: Election 2006, Sekula-Gibbs, Santorum, Murtha

Cross-posted at LetFreedomRingBlog

This entry was posted on Tuesday, November 7th, 2006 at 12:42 am and is filed under Author: Gary Gross, Elections, Immigration, Judiciary. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.