Throw The Bums Out Election, You Say?
Many an article has been written about how the people want to “throw the bums out” in DC. According to this CQ article, Stuart Rothenberg isn’t buying that notion:
Surveys over the past couple of weeks have shown Republican former Rep. Mike Sodrel ahead of Democratic Rep. Baron P. Hill in Indiana by 8 points; in Maryland, Republican Andy Harris leads freshman Democrat Frank M. Kratovil Jr. by 13 points; GOP former Rep. Tim Walberg leads Democrat Mark Schauer in Michigan by 10 points; and Republican former Rep. Steve Chabot leading Democratic Rep. Steve Driehaus by a whopping 17 points.
In addition, Rep. Timothy Bishop (D-NY) leads unknown challenger Randy Altschuler (R) by only 2 points, while controversial Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-MN) is drawing 55 percent in an early ballot test against state Sen. Tarryl Clark (D).
I’m not surprised by these numbers with the exception of Tarryl trailing by that big a margin. Most analysts predicted Michele winning but I’m certain that they expected a tighter race, at least this early.
Most Minnesota pundits thought that the Michele-Tarryl fight would be the best fight of this election cycle. After seeing those polling numbers, and after seeing the results from Massachusetts’ special election, those pundits might revisit that.
It wouldn’t surprise me if Tim Walz’s seat got additional scrutiny. I wrote here that Rep. Walz voted for “the failed stimulus bill, the job-killing Cap and Tax bill and now the government takeover of the American health care system.”
If casting those three votes aren’t enough to put Walz’s seat at risk, then his telling EdMinn that voting for Pelosicare “was the easiest vote I ever cast” should put him at risk.
Just like Walz’s wounds are self-inflicted, so are Baron Hill’s. Hill’s defeat was essentially sealed after this incident:
I titled that post “Congressman, You Work For US…For Now.” It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to know that insulting one’s constituents isn’t part of the traditional path to re-election. That type of arrogance is the path to an early retirement.
Chris Cillizza is reporting that another Democrat will announce his retirement sometime this morning:
Arkansas Rep. Marion Berry is expected to announce his retirement tomorrow morning, according to three sources briefed on the decision. Berry will become the sixth Democrat in a competitive seat to leave in the last two months but the first to announce his retirement since the party’s special election loss in Massachusetts last Tuesday.
“The message coming out of the Massachusetts special election is clear: No Democrat is safe,” said National Republican Congressional Committee communications director Ken Spain.
Berry, first elected in 1996, had been noncommittal about his re-election bid for months although, privately, his allies insisted he was planning to run for re-election.
It isn’t that people are convinced that Republicans will be the party of fiscal responsibility. It’s more that they’re certain that Democrats are the party of fiscal irresponsibility.
The first step in restoring fiscal sanity is getting rid of the most flagrant violators. Some of that will happen in GOP primaries. (Think Utah’s Robert Bennett.) That ‘cleansing’ might include Mike Pence, the third-ranking member of the House GOP, defeating Evan Bayh.
The bottom line is this: With Democrats controlling both ends of Pennsylvania Ave., Democrats will be the bums getting thrown out if this is a ‘throw-the-bums-out’ election. HINT: That’s why we’ll see alot more retirements over the next 2-3 weeks.
Technorati Tags: Pundits, Stuart Rothenberg, Chris Cillizza, Retirements, Marion Berry, Baron Hill, Tim Walz, Tarryl Clark, Evan Bayh, Democrats, Michele Bachmann, Mike Pence, Republicans, Election 2010
Cross-posted at LetFreedomRingBlog