Junk Science Strikes Again
“As many as 1.5 million people are sickened by bacterial pollution on Southern California beaches each year, resulting in millions of dollars in public health care costs, a new study has found.” — Associated Press, July 18, 2006
If it were true, that 1.5 million people a year are being harmed at California beaches, why aren’t they closing them down. With such a large number of tourists (since people from Kansas appear to love our beaches) getting sick, why don’t other states demand our beaches be closed?
I note that they claim that if the beaches were cleaned up, Los Angeles County could save $13-28 million per year. That is a large range. Or, if they enforced the laws, like driving without insurance, loitering, deporting criminal illegal aliens, arresting illegal aliens using phony ID’s, Social Security cards and stealing honest people’s ID’s, the county of Los angels could save hundreds of millions of dollars each year.
If one believes this story, there is an epidemic and our health officials are doing nothing to stop it. Let me see, for years this has been going on, millions are getting sick, but the Health Department in Orange, Los Angeles and Ventura counties never noticed this. But, three people eat a bad hamburger at the local burger joint and it tops the news.
Again, the folks that believe living is dangerous to your health have spoken. Of course, if we close the beaches or a couple of years, destroy the tourist industry, spends tens of millions of dollars, maybe then the Chicken Little’s would be satisfied. No, the time is now to tell these folks they need to get a life, a productive life. They need to stop making people as miserable as they are. Maybe they should go to a baseball game? Of course, you know how many foul balls goes into the stands and hits the spectators? Or, they could go to a movie and have popcorn and some Raisinettes. But, popcorn must be bad for you and Raisinettes are why Americans are obese–no self control in the sight of a beautiful chocolate coated raisin.
Time for these folks to put up or stop trying to scare people. Either close the beaches and fix the problem or stop making statements to show that you think you are smart.
What do you think? Do we have an epidemic because of the beaches, or is this another case of JUNK SCIENCE?
UPDATE:
Michelle Malkin: “Might As Well Jump!”
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Steve Frank is the publisher of California Political News and Views and a Senior Contributor to CaliforniaConservative.org. He is also a consultant currently working on gambling issues and advising other consultants on policy and coalition building.
July 19th, 2006 at 10:20 am
The only junk science I see here is your argument. You’ve not disproven their claim, which would be scientific. Rather, you’re just whining, which doesn’t help your cause. Now, if you want to be an adult about it, make a rational argument backed up with facts.
July 19th, 2006 at 1:24 pm
So, you want science. Hmmm. Let me google “estimate number of beach goers in california” and I see as number two (2) on results the following,
“Economic Statistics for NOAA
A number of different sources estimate beach visitation days for California. … million beach visits, we estimate that market expenditures by beach goers in California …
http://www.publicaffairs.noaa.gov/pdf/economic-statistics-may2006.pdf
From page 35 of said NOAA document, we see:
In 1999-2000, the top three states for beach visitation were Florida (15.2 million
participants and 177.2 million days), California (12.6 million participants and
151.4 million days), and Hawaii (3.6 million participants and 101.2 million
days).
Cite: Leeworthy, V.R. and Wiley, P.C., Current Participation Patterns in
Marine Recreation, Table A-3, p. 25.Website:
http://marineeconomics.noaa.gov/NSRE/NSRE_V1-6_May.pdf.
Search result number seven (7)
Report to California Environmental Protection Agency Comparative Risk …
… to mid-1985, still represent the best estimate … water quality and health effects on beach-goers … US EPA, Region IX, San Francisco, California. We also appreciate the time taken by a number of …
o http://www.gfredlee.com/phealthsig_080801.pdf
We see this quote:
…(since waterborne diseases tend to be sporadic, self-limiting, and restricted to one-time events),
And this quote (italics mine)
Payment (1993) also discussed the societal costs of the so-called “mild illnesses” that do not necessarily result in hospitalization or consultation with a physician. Because of the wide range of symptoms associated with enteroviruses and because enteroviruses may be acquired through routes other than water, it is impossible to estimate the societal costs of mild illnesses caused by waterborne enteroviruses. However, those costs are expected to be very high, ranging in the order of hundreds of millions of dollars per year for the USA.
From the AP Article:
“Cleaning up storm water runoff, the chief cause of dirty ocean water in Southern California, would prevent 394,000 to 804,000 gastrointestinal cases and save $13 million to $28 million in annual health costs in Los Angeles County.”
Now I’ll join in the whinning.
1. The article seems to confuse visits with visitors. (80 million visitors in the article vs the NOAA estimate of 12.6 million for the entire state).
2. The comparative risk article points out that we are talking about very mild cases which do not require medical attention.
3. These cases are impossible to pin down to water borne sources due to wide range of symptons and that they can be aquired by routes other than water.
4. It is impossible to quantify the cost for such illnesses. (But, by God, they must be really high!)
5. The cost of these illnesses can save, at most, $28 million (upper end of estimate)
The question now before us is:
“Can we treat the Los Angeles County stormwater runoff for $28 million per year?”
From a second search:
http://www.engineer.ucla.edu/stories/2003/runoff.htm
The cost of treating all the stormwater runoff is prohibitive. “One big rainstorm around here is like two months flow at the Hyperion Wastewater Treatment Plant,” Stenstrom said. “We spent $3-4 billion dollars down there and you can’t imagine how much it would cost to have a plant that would treat all the stormwater.”
So, where are we? Just another stupid scare without much foundation.
Regards,
JJ
July 19th, 2006 at 1:24 pm
No, actually, he raises a good point. Why would the LA County Department of Health and Human Services not do anything about unsanitary conditions at public, county owned and operated beaches? Either this is a load of crap or somebody needs to take action and not just spread boogey man warnings in the news.
May 10th, 2007 at 7:20 pm
hello hi honey