California Conservative

After reading the final Crystal Ball ‘reading’, that’s the only conclusion I can come to. Let’s examine the most outrageous predictions first:

Five days out, let’s rephrase the question this way: when’s the last time a major political party has failed to capture a single House seat, Senate seat, or governorship of the opposing party in a federal election year? We bet it’s never happened before, and it certainly hasn’t happened in the post-World War II era. After all, even when a party suffers miserable net losses, it usually picks up at least several consolation prizes in the form of open seat pickups or an against-the-tide incumbent defeat.
Yet look at our 2006 predictions: at this moment, the Crystal Ball cannot identify a single election for Senate, House or Governor in which a Republican is likely to succeed a Democrat in office. Just imagine how devastating an absolute shutout would be in the eyes of history if this proves to be true!

Let me rephrase this: Just imagine how devastating this idiotic of a prediction will be in the careers of Mssrs. Sabato and Wasserman.

The other thing to point out is that they can’t “identify a single election for Senate, House or Governor is likely to succeed a Democrat in office” is because they started with a faulty premise, then didn’t bother looking. Let’s start going through the specific predictions:

No one credibly argues that Democrats aren’t going to win at least 3 or 4 Senate seats, bringing the GOP down to 51 or 52 seats. But increasingly it looks like they will win five (Pennsylvania, Ohio, Montana, and Rhode Island, in that order, and at least one of Missouri, Virginia, or Tennessee). To get the magic 6 they need for control, Democrats need 2 of those 3. Gravy would be all 3, giving them a 52 seat majority.

The GOP will hold their seats in Missouri, Virginia, Tennessee and quite likely Montana. Also, don’t write Ohio off because of the redness of that state and their great GOTV operation. Count me as one who “credibly argues that Democrats” will net much less than “3 or 4 Senate seats.”

Are there places the GOP could gain a seat? The only nearly even-money bet is New Jersey, followed closely by Maryland, but both states usually disappoint Republicans in the end. Long-shot possibilities are Michigan, Nebraska, and Washington, with none looking likely at the moment.

Steele will defeat Cardin and Mike Bouchard has at least an even money shot at defeating “Dangerously Incompetent” Debbie Stabenow.

Maryland - Leans Dem - Ben Cardin (D) will defeat Michael Steele (R). Though Steele has had a comparatively good month, we just don’t buy the argument that he is within striking distance of the more ideologically in-step (if boring) Cardin.

Wrong Moosebreath. Cardin isn’t getting nearly the amount of support from the black population in Prince Georges County that he needs. Get out the butter because this guy’s toast. Steele wins going away.

Michigan - Likely Dem - Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D) will win reelection over Mike Bouchard (R). Why national Republicans won’t give up on this race is beyond us; many argue Bouchard is gaining back some ground, but we say too little too late.

Stabenow is a do-nothing first term incumbent in a state that’s experiencing economic disaster. Bouchard just had President Bush visit, raising $700,000 for him while firing up the GOP faithful. It won’t take much to push this into a GOP gain.

Missouri - Toss-up - Claire McCaskill (D) will unseat Sen. Jim Talent (R). This race couldn’t be closer, but here’s our rationale: “Show Me” a slightly more red-than-blue state in a very Democratic year, and I’ll show you a slightly more blue-than-red Senate outcome.

Claire ‘Walking Ethical Violation’ McCaskill won’t win. Here’s why: She doesn’t have volunteers helping her campaign and she can’t raise money (She borrowed her campaign $500,000 this week). If you can’t raise enough money, that generally means that you don’t have sufficient voter support. Also, here’s what I wrote about McCaskill’s campaign about a month ago:

The Missouri Democrat Party is illegally sending millions of pieces of mail on behalf of Claire McCaskill’s campaign to unsuspecting Missourians, according to a Federal Election Commission complaint filed today by the Missouri Republican Party.
“Direct mail pieces being distributed by the Missouri Democrat State Committee provide strong evidence that the Democrat Party is engaging in a large scale and illegal coordinated campaign to support Claire McCaskill,” said Jared Craighead, executive director of the Missouri Republican Party. “This is a clear example of Democrats turning a blind eye to federal election law and they should be held accountable.”
Coordination between a political party and a federal candidate is permitted only for certain, specific volunteer activities. Otherwise, such coordinated activities count as contributions to the candidate’s campaign and are strictly limited by federal campaign finance law.

If she’s relying on the state Democratic party to do her mailings, then she doesn’t have much of a group of volunteers. Stick a fork in her because she’s done.

Montana - Leans Dem - Jon Tester (D) will unseat Sen. Conrad Burns (R). Burns has ably portrayed Tester as well left of Montana’s mainstream, but the Abramoff drumbeat may be insurmountable for him and Tester was quick to criticize Sen. Kerry’s recent statement.

I wouldn’t bet too heavily on this just yet. President Bush just visited AND they’re talking judges and taxes to Montana residents, issues where Republicans have an advantage on Democrats. I’m not predicting a Burns win but I’m certainly not writing him off.

Virginia - Toss-up - Jim Webb (D) will unseat Sen. George Allen (R). Of course we’re not counting him out altogether, but Allen’s slow self-destruction has been nothing short of breathtaking, and we at the Crystal Ball are still somewhat shocked to find ourselves at the epicenter of the fight for the Senate.

Rating this a tossup and predicting a Webb win isn’t pushing it; it’s simply delusional. Webb won’t get much support from women after his writings were revealed.

Now let’s move to the House:

AZ-05 - Toss-up - Harry Mitchell (D) will unseat Rep. J.D. Hayworth (R).

Wrong. Immigration is the top issue in Arizona and few people like granting amnesty to illegal aliens. Hayworth returns to D.C. on that issue alone.

CT-02 - Toss-up - Joe Courtney (D) will unseat Rep. Rob Simmons (R).

The last polling I saw showed Simmons trailing by a point but that poll was a weekend poll. That’s like saying Simmons is leading by 3. Where’d they come up with this pick?

CT-04 - Toss-up - Diane Farrell (D) will unseat Rep. Christopher Shays (R).

Shays trails Farrell by 7 in the latest polling but I’m betting that the GOP turnout that’ll be voting for Lieberman will help push Shays over the top.

CT-05 - Toss-up - Chris Murphy (D) will unseat Rep. Nancy Johnson (R).

Nancy Johnson trailed Murphy by 3 in the latest polling but that poll was another weekend poll. Adjusting for that, you get Johnson leading within the margin of error.

FL-16 - Toss-up - Tim Mahoney (D) will defeat Joe Negron (R).

Mahoney’s sunk. This is a district that Foley won re-election with a 36 point margin in 04. Jeb’s campaigning with Negron and the NRCC has dumped almost $2 million into this campaign. Negron wins going away.

IL-06 - Toss-up - Tammy Duckworth (D) will defeat Peter Roskam (R).

Duckworth was trailing by outside the margin in this staunchly Republican district. Duckworth’s going uphill with a ton of bricks on her shoulders.

MN-06 - Toss-up - Patty Wetterling (D) will defeat Michele Bachmann (R).

This is my home district. I’ll believe this prediction when a winged squadron of pigs starts cirling my house. Wetterling will be fortunate to get 45% of the vote.

TX-22 - Toss-up - Nick Lampson (D) will defeat Shelly Sekula-Gibbs (R).

My friend King Banaian thinks Sekula-Gibbs will win here. King’s a pretty good tea leaf reader. Plus I’ve heard optimistic reports on this too so I think we’ll see a S-G win Tuesday night.

PS- the other dirty little secret I’ve heard is that Lampson will switch parties if he wins. Wouldn’t that be interesting?

NM-01 - Toss-up - Patricia Madrid (D) will unseat Heather Wilson (R).

No she won’t. Wilson mopped the floor with her in their most recent debate. Also, Wilson is on the right side of the immigration issue; Madrid isn’t.

NY-26 - Toss-up - Jack Davis (D) will unseat Rep. Tom Reynolds (R).

Get serious. Rove was just up there. This seat’s safe. Reynolds is pulling away.

WI-08 - Toss-up - Steve Kagen (D) will defeat John Gard (R).

I just saw a bit of one debate but Kagen screwed up badly. He was asked a question about terrorism and he responded “Terrorists, especially the deadly kind…” Earth to Kagen: Most terrorists are “the deadly kind”. Sheesh.

Of course, Mssrs. Sabato and Wasserman were so enamored with their theory that they didn’t consult the facts on the ground. Diana Irey will defeat Jack Murtha. I’m giving Alan Fine a 40% chance of winning in MN-5. I’m giving Rod Grams a solid shot at toppling Jim Oberstar in MN-8. Ditto with Michael Barrett in MN-7. Collin Peterson has represented MN-7 forever but he made some mistakes this year, supporting amnesty for illegal aliens and also veering sharply left while abandoning his Blue Dog image. Barrett’s run a smart campaign, too, catching him on several national security votes.

This is what happens when you start with a theory and leave no room for adjustments based on the information gleaned from painstaking research. It’s like starting with a verdict, then making the information fit the verdict. Mssrs. Sabato and Wasserman will be embarassed when this election is over.

Technorati Tags: Election 2006, Michael Steele, Murtha, President Bush, Illegal Immigration, Larry Sabato

Cross-posted at LetFreedomRingBlog

This entry was posted on Friday, November 3rd, 2006 at 12:56 am and is filed under Author: Gary Gross, Elections, Homeland Security, Immigration. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.