There They Go Again…
Peter Brown thinks that Democrats are pursuing another demographic. He also thinks it’ll fail because they’re ducking the real problem:
Every four years, it seems, the Democratic establishment finds another way to explain why they have lost without conceding the obvious. They are unable to win enough votes from the largest demographic group, white, mostly middle-class, voters to get over the top.
How many of you have heard something from the Democrats’ list of ‘golden oldies’? Chief among them must be “We just didn’t get our message out.” We all know that’s fact because if they ‘got their message out’ about favoring (a) higher taxes, (b) ‘consensus judges’ that ignore the Constitution on most of their rulings and (c) catering to anti-war fanatics, they’d be hard pressed to win a single state other than New York and California.
Think of it as their 40% problem. Think of it as their strategist problem, too. The best they’ve got is the ‘Dud Duo’ of th’ Ragin’ Cajun and the Forehead. When they ran Clinton’s campaign, they helped him get 43% of the vote. Big deal. Then there’s Bob Shrum, the man that’s lost every presidential campaign he’s ever ran. And we can’t forget Boilin’ Bob Beckel and Susan Estrich.
The other part of their problem is what I’d term their ‘Governor Problem’. The thing about Republicans is that their gubernatorial ‘pipeline’ is seemingly always full. And since the last 7 presidential elections were won by sitting governors or men who were had just left the governors’ office, it seems to me that that’s a built-in advantage for Republicans. But I digress.
When was the last time that a Democrat actually had a majority of white voters vote his direction? Try 1964. Rest assured that, come 2008, that Hillary won’t capture that voting block. That’s as safe a bet as saying that Howard Dean will never be president. There’s zero chance of Hillary coming close.
Finally, the biggest problem is that progressives have kept ’setting their sights’ higher and higher on social issues. The truth is that there was a time when Democrats connected with average white folk. Democrats weren’t openly hostile towards religion. They understood the issues of white working-class people and actually had solutions that didn’t cost an arm and a leg. And they could talk the talk with that group of voters.
Somewhere way back, I think Democrats stopped being the pro-growth party. They let labor unions keep pushing them further from those issues. They associated themselves with too many fringe groups because, frankly, they were scrambling for any vote they could get. And they became the dovish party.
Meanwhile, under the leadership of Ronald Reagan, Republicans put on smiling faces and started preaching the ‘Gospel of Hope and Optimism’. Because of that, Reagan created a new demographic: the Reagan Democrat. Contrary to popular belief, that group isn’t gone. They’re just called Republicans now.
By the way, think of how many of these issues and demographics work against Hillary. Think that she’ll win over the lunchpale guy? Or the businessman? Or the small business owner? I wouldn’t buy that if it were a stock. Would you?
So in the end, we’ll hear Democrats whining again that they didn’t get their message out. And that they need to learn to connect with ‘values’ people. Karl Rove will smile and say “Sorry, they’re part of our base.”
Cross-post at LetFreedomRing