The GOP’s Harbinger
Yesterday, I said that Ohio might be a disappointment for Democrats, a prospect that I like alot. It seems that George Will agrees, at least in part, with my thinking. Herer’s part of Mr. Will is thinking:
Blackwell is particularly noteworthy because he has had the most varied political career, a city councilman at 29, mayor at 31, national chairman of Steve Forbes’ 2000 presidential campaign. And because he is the most conservative. Polls suggest that Blackwell, 57, can win the Republican primary May 2. National party leaders think that only he can keep the governorship Republican, because the state GOP establishment has been hostile to him, and Ohio voters are now robustly hostile to it.
He annoys the establishment because he, unlike it, believes things. He believes that the establishment is proof of a conservative axiom: Any political group or institution that is not ideologically conservative will become, over time, liberal. That is so because, in the absence of a principled adherence to limited government, careerism, the political idea of the unthoughtful, will cause incumbents to use public spending to purchase job security.
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He appeals to small-government conservatives by proposing a constitutional cap on state spending, and even leasing the Ohio Turnpike to private investors. His cultural conservatism has won him such intense support from many church leaders, some liberals are contemplating recourse to an American sacrament, a lawsuit. It would threaten the tax-exempt status of churches deemed too supportive of Blackwell.
He appeals to blacks by being black, and because many blacks are cultural conservatives: George W. Bush won 16 percent of Ohio’s black vote in 2004. In Blackwell’s three statewide races, he has received between 30 percent and 40 percent of the black vote. If in November he duplicates that, he will win, and Democrats in many blue states will blanch because if their share of the black vote falls to 75 percent, their states could turn red.
This has to be the D’s nightmare scenario. Imagine Lynn Swann and Ken Blackwell becoming the governors of Ohio and Pennsylvania. Imagine Michael Steele replacing Paul Sarbanes as Maryland’s senator. At this point, all are leading in the latest polling. At this point, I don’t see a reason why this trio won’t win in November.
If that happens, the 2008 election map will get rejiggled in a big way and it won’t be for the D’s benefit, either.
Cross-post at LetFreedomRing
February 19th, 2006 at 4:23 pm
And not a moment too soon.
February 19th, 2006 at 5:20 pm
It appears that the Libs agree with you, Gary. Take a look at what appeared in today’s SF Chrincle:
Read the piece here.