1. Beyond the cliche that “turnout could well decide the elections,” (our least favorite headline to see printed), we felt that this T would better be addressed in Top of the Ticket Influences. Yes, everyone knows that wave elections manifest themselves through one party voting in disproportionate numbers, but the concentration of House races in states with competitive top-of-ballot races is a unique dynamic for 2006.

2. We acknowledged that 22 out of 30 was an unlikelihood an a “tall mountain to climb,” and still feel that way. But this figure is indicative of movement over the last few months and, quite frankly, races often do break heavily one way or the other, though it is true that our D30 in 2004 went 16-14 for the GOP.

3. The defensive posture of the GOP this year we’re referring to has as much to do with candidates as message. We acknowledged that the Dems have failed to establish a compelling narrative, but we’ve stated before that Dem candidate recruitment has fared much better than GOP efforts to date this cycle.

4. When there’s any sort of wave election, GOTV operations can matter little in the final analysis. We here in Virginia were treated to the 72-hour program in 2005, and the GOP candidate still lost miserably, underperforming even many of the final polls in the race.

Thanks for the opportunity to respond.

-DW