Polling Analysis
According to this Washington Times’ article, the national polling doesn’t look as bad for Republicans as the Agenda Media and the DNC have been crowing about. Let’s take a look at that article:
Most polls say a majority of registered voters would vote Democrat if the congressional elections were held today, but a new independent polling analysis now finds that Republicans could lead among people who actually vote. The CNN/USA Today/Gallup Poll reported last week that the Democrats led Republicans among registered voters in the generic congressional survey by 50 percent to 43 percent, a seven-point margin that could give Democrats enough victories to take control of the House, if their supporters participate in November’s elections.
But a deeper analysis of these numbers by David W. Moore for the Gallup Poll said, “It is likely many voters will not do so” because turnout among registered voters tends to be lower than that among “likely voters” who say they plan to vote and usually do. In his analysis, Mr. Moore writes that Gallup’s “experience over the past two midterm elections, in 1998 and 2002, suggests that the [registered voters] numbers tend to overstate the Democratic margin by about 10? (sp) percentage points. Given that Democrats currently lead by seven points, that could mean that among people who will definitely vote, Republicans actually lead by three to four points,” he said.
As I’ve written about numerous times, the best way for a conservative to view polls is with a hefty bit of skepticism. This article shows why. Who cares how the general public feels in terms of campaigns if they won’t show up and vote? It’s a totally useless statistic, like the right track/wrong track numbers. The truth is that I ignore all right track/wrong track polling totals unless they’re really dramatic.
This should also put a little more lift in the steps of the GOP. Until this article, we’ve been told again and again that we were sunk, we’d lost the House already, that the Senate was ready to flip, etc. I didn’t give those opinions alot of credibility, though, because they underestimate the passion that conservatives have towards conservative candidates.
As a rule of thumb, midterm election polling that specifies adults or registered voters isn’t worth the paper they’re printed on. By far the most accurate polling are done midweek and reflect likely voters, not adults or registered.
Likewise, polling of registered voters during presidential election years are more accurate than during midterms. I’d prefer calling the midterms an ‘activist’ election because turnout is usually lower.
I highly recommend that you read the entire article.
Cross-post at LetFreedomRing
February 27th, 2006 at 11:31 pm
Heck, I don’t care about polls period. The only polls that count are the elections. Until then they can take thier polls and shove em where the sun don’t shine.