Not that This Race Is Over But…
I wouldn’t say that the race for Virginia’s next governor is over but I heard a rumor that Creigh Deeds had to stick a sock in the fat lady’s mouth after reading this Washington Post poll:
McDonnell leads 53 to 44 percent among likely voters, expanding on the four-point lead he held in mid-September. Deeds’s advantage with female voters has all but disappeared, and McDonnell has grown his already wide margin among independents. Deeds, a state senator from western Virginia, is widely seen by voters as running a negative campaign, a finding that might indicate that his aggressive efforts to exploit McDonnell’s 20-year-old graduate thesis are turning voters away.
Much of the movement since last month has come in Northern Virginia, where Deeds’s 17-point lead has been whittled significantly, even in the area’s left-leaning inner suburbs.
The only worse news that Creigh Deeds could’ve gotten was that Charlie Rangel’s accountant was his new campaign finance director. This is horrible news. I won’t say that this is Deeds’ curtain call but I won’t say things are looking good for him, either.
What’s especially troubling for Deeds is that (a) Northern Virginia, the most liberal part of the state, isn’t giving him a big enough margin to offset the conservative parts of the state where Bob McDonnell should rack up big margins, and (b) women voters aren’t supporting the Democrats’ candidate. Anytime that the Democrats hope to win, they need to win a significant majority of the female vote.
They need to do this because they historically don’t get enough support from men.
That isn’t the only depressing news for Democrats from the Washington Post poll:
The poll indicates that the GOP is well-positioned to emphatically end a recent Democratic winning streak, with Republicans Bill Bolling and Ken Cuccinelli each holding identical 49 to 40 percent leads over Democrats Jody Wagner and Steve Shannon for lieutenant governor and attorney general.
If Republicans win all three top-of-the-ticket, statewide races decisively in Virginia, that will give them a substantial fundraising lift as well as giving the party’s base a significant confidence boost. Since it’s so close to DC, it’s bound to get the Republicans’ attention there, too. If Republicans see that they can win decisively in Virginia, that will stiffen the spines of some GOP wobblies.
Based on this information, I’d say that Deeds hasn’t run a high quality campaign:
Also in recent weeks, Deeds has struggled in several appearances in Northern Virginia, including a debate last month in Fairfax County that he followed by bungling questions from reporters about whether he supports a tax increase. That lengthy scene has been turned into a campaign commercial by Republicans and is airing across the state.
The worst thing that can happen to a gubernatorial candidate is for them to look indecisive or unsure of themselves. Nothing is as big a turnoff to voters looking for leadership than indecision.
After writing this post, I’m changing my mind. It’s time to put this race to sleep. Creigh Deeds won’t win.
Technorati Tags: Polling, Washington Post, Creigh Deeds, Tax Increases, Jody Wagner, Steve Shannon, Democrats, Bob McDonnell, Bill Bolling, Ken Cuccinelli, Republicans, Election 2010
Cross-posted at LetFreedomRingBlog