Message Already Sent
Pundits are speculating that moderate Democrats will act different if Chris Christie defeats Jon Corzine in the New Jersey gubernatorial race. I don’t know if that’s true or not but this I know: a message has been sent to Democrats, that message being that voting for the public option will get you defeated in 2010.
Appearing on last night’s Hannity, Frank Luntz said that his focus group polling showed that Democrats voting for the public option would be in for the fight of their political lives. A full 25% of people would “actively work to defeat” a Democrat who voted for the public option. Another 23% said that they’d be “likely to vote against” a Democrat who voted for the public option. Another 9% of those polled would be “somewhat likely to vote against” a Democrat who voted for the public option. Only 28% of the people polled said that they’d be more likely to vote for a Democrat who voted for the public option.
The pro public option breakdown was 8% “would actively work to get elected”, 10% would be “more likely to vote for” a politician who voted for the public option and 8% who would be “somewhat likely to vote for” a politician who votes for the public option.
Several things jumped out at me from this polling data. The first thing is that the intensity of opponents of the public option is 3 times that of those who strongly support the public option. Think about it. This is the Democrats’ holy grail, the thing that Ted Kennedy fought for until his dying day. Despite that history, opponents are more passionate about defeating the public option than those who passionately want it passed.
Another thing that jumped out at me is the fact that the people who passionately oppose the public option would work to defeat their incumbent if they voted for the public option. Potentially, that means trouble for Democratic politicians like Collin Peterson and Walt Minnick.
I’d further suggest that it’s wrong to think that the only people at risk are the Democrats elected for the first time in 2006 or 2008. With the mood the way it is, it wouldn’t surprise me if alot of longtime incumbents found themselves in for the fight of their life.
Technorati Tags: Elections, Jon Corzine, Corruption, Walt Minnick, Collin Peterson, Cap And Trade, Ted Kennedy, Health Care, Polling, Activism
Cross-posted at LetFreedomRingBlog
October 18th, 2009 at 4:00 pm
Thats all very nice Gary, but I would not want to depend on the voters of the New Jersey gubernatorial to be the bellweather of the next Congressional election. In case you havent noticed, Corzine has almost wiped out, Cristies earlier lead. And given the Acorn effect, or shall we say the Chicago tactics, now the de rigeur of the Democratic Party, Republicans, or any opposition party will need to win convincingly, not just by 1 or 2 %.; those days are over.
Underlying all that is the amazing propensity for New Jersey to remain obstinately Democratic inspite of the political graft, corruption and scandal, which seems to be a requirement in the Garden State.