California Conservative

I’m a huge fan of Redstate blog but I simply disagree with this post. Here’s what I find objectionable:

As the sun sets across Georgia, let me be the first to say publicly on RedState what a lot of us have thought privately – we’re probably going to lose the House by 20 seats minimum.

Simply put, that prediction doesn’t stand a snowball’s prayer in hell of happening. In order for the GOP “to lose the House by 20 seats”, that means Democrats would control 237 seats. That means a Democratic gain of approximately 35 seats. As I told King Banaian last night, there aren’t 35 vulnerable GOP seats. (RCP lists 27 GOP seats as either leaning Democrat or toss-up, with 13 leaning and 14 toss-ups.)

Let’s let history be a guide, too. In the historic 1994 elections, over 100 Democratic seats were vulnerable. The GOP gained 52 seats, meaning that approximately 50% of the Dems’ vulnerable seats fell. What makes anyone think that Democrats will convert 50+ percent of the so-called vulnerable seats into gains in this unhistoric election?

There certainly will be no shortage of tight races tonight but the good news is that GOP candidates nationwide have been riding a positive wave the past 3-5 days. That will have an extraordinary impact in a year with this many tight races.

To be fair to Erick, though, I definitely agree with this:

Win, lose, or draw, the House GOP needs a change. The Senate should, I think, be fine under the leadership of my hero Mitch “Repeal BCRA” McConnell. Speaker Hastert, Majority Leader Boehner, Majority Whip Blunt, and Deputy Majority Whip Cantor need some time in the wilderness to rediscover their roots.

The House leadership is in desparate need of some new ideological blood. That said, I think that the Senate desparately needs more conservatives like Tom Coburn.

Technorati Tags: Election 2006, Republican Leadership

Cross-posted at LetFreedomRingBlog

This entry was posted on Tuesday, November 7th, 2006 at 1:19 pm and is filed under Author: Gary Gross, Elections, RNC. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.