Census/Illegal Immigration Ramifications
I’ll bet that most people don’t pay much attentiont to the impact that illegal immigrants have on the census taken at the start of each new decade. Those that don’t know are about to find out because its potential to change the electoral landscape is getting noticed:
A University of Connecticut study concluded Arizona, Texas and Florida could all see their House delegations increase due to rising populations that include sizable numbers of illegal immigrants.
Although they can’t vote, such aliens are included in the census. The San Jose (Calif.) Mercury News predicted Tuesday the pending 2010 headcount could be the subject of a political fight as Democrats and Republicans jockey for position before House seats are reallocated.
The Connecticut study also predicted California and New Jersey would likely keep their current number of seats while states with fewer immigrants, including New York, Illinois and Ohio, will lose a seat or two.
Don’t think that demographers for both parties aren’t taking note of this. I’m certain that they’re putting together plans for redistricting.
This could have big longterm ramifications in presidential elections. Subtracting electoral votes from New York and Illinois means that Democrats would have to flip some states in 2012 that currently are red states. Couple that with adding electoral votes to ’safe’ states like Florida and Texas compounds the problem. It isn’t insurmountable but it makes things dicier for Democrats.
It’s impossible to predict what effect this will have in House races until we see how the districts are drawn. Rest assured, though, that we’ll see lots of heated skirmishes once the census information is compiled and distributed.
Technorati Tags: Census, Redistricting, Electoral Votes, Florida, Texas, New York, Presidential Elections
Cross-posted at LetFreedomRingBlog
October 3rd, 2007 at 8:58 am
[...] Technorati: Census, Redistricting, Electoral Votes, Florida, Texas, New York, Presidential Elections Cross-posted at California Conservative Categories: Midterm Elections, Presidential Elections, Immigration | [...]
October 3rd, 2007 at 5:12 pm
The sad truth is this: Who cares? I personally don’t. As a Native American and resident of California. I really don’t care whether this country is White-majority or Hispanic-majority. And many others don’t, either. Most Hispanics don’t care, and many Asians don’t care either. California is gone from Republican hands. Republicans have to accept that. Especially since 72% of people on the state’s voting registrar are White, despite California being only 48% white. When all the illegal immigrants and non-citizens have children, they will be citizens. Hispanics vote based on self-interest. They are socially conservative (like you), but they will never be true American. They will always want to have two identities. Same with Asians. What could emerge one day is a Hispanic party. It will turn into Democrats vs a Hispanic party. Republicans would become the “wasted vote.”
October 4th, 2007 at 10:48 pm
This, after all the smoke is blown away, was what the “motor voter” bill was all about.
My ancestors were more persecuted than you will ever be, for millenia. Yet I have a hard time splitting my loyalty between who I am and where my ancestry came from. I was raised as an American, and was taught how America was developed (unlike the corn-fed crap that is taught in schools today). I am proud of my country, warts and all. It leaves room for improvement. It’s too bad some others who enjoy the advantages of life here can’t see their country that way, too.
October 5th, 2007 at 4:41 pm
[...] Original post by Gary Gross [...]
October 24th, 2007 at 10:42 am
Get over the patriotism. The difference was that Native Americans were once the majority in the so-called United States of America. For all other ethnic groups who were persecuted, they still remain with some land and a country to call home.