It seems that Rahm Emanuel has a problem in achieving his goal of retaking the House for Democrats. Salena Zito’s column offers that proof:

Emanuel is brutally efficient. He understood that House Democrats needed to pick good candidates, frame messages that work locally, develop a superb get-out-the-vote effort and raise money. He knocked on the door of DNC Chairman Howard Dean for that get-out-the-vote money, a door that Dean promptly slammed. Dean has party-building visions for all 50 states; Emanuel has party-winning plans for 21 vulnerable GOP seats. So Emanuel went to Michael Whouley, the man who dealt Dean his stunning Iowa primary loss. Whouley brought that first win home for John Kerry with sheer strategy, and he plans on doing the same for the Democrats’ House candidates in 2006.

Emanuel can’t reach his goal if there are “21 vulnerable GOP seats.” The rule of thumb is that you’re doing better than average if you win 50 percent of the opposition’s vulnerable seats. The ultimate benchmark is 1994, when Republicans won 52 seats. The GOP’s pollsters said at the time that there were roughly 100 vulnerable Democratic seats.

Don’t forget that Democrats have to have a net gain of 15 seats this November. That means they have to offset the seats that they lose, starting with John Murtha’s seat. Winning 16 of the 21 most vulnerable GOP seats is winning eighty percent of the vulnerable seats. It’s understatement to say that I’m skeptical of them achieving that.

There’s another nugget in that paragraph that’s a hindrance to Emanuel’s goal: “He knocked on the door of DNC Chairman Howard Dean for that get-out-the-vote money, a door that Dean promptly slammed.” That won’t get the job done because he had to hire Michael Whouley to do that. That’s money that the DCCC won’t have to fund its candidates.

Couple that with the trend of diminishing Democratic opportunities and you have the recipe for Republicans keeping control of the House. That trend is noticeable if you consider that MN-6 was part of the ‘most-watched’ House races all year but was recently taken off that list. One of the telltale signs to watch for this fall is to see where the top Democrats are going to. That’s what I did in 04. The bigwigs won’t be travelling to districts that they don’t have a serious shot at winning.

I also watched where Kerry was cancelling ad buys. That was a telltale sign that didn’t think he could win that state. Watch for the ever-shrinking map of opportunities. Watch for which party is ‘playing’ on the other’s turf.

Technorati: Rahm Emanuel, DCCC, DNC, Howard Dean, Election 2006

Cross-posted at LetFreedomRingBlog