California Conservative

A few weeks back, I said that GOP turnout would hinge on whether Republicans could villainize Democrats. I suggested that painting the picture of Ted Kennedy chairing the Alito Confirmation Hearings or John Conyers holding impeachment hearings. Just imagine the House led by Speaker Nancy Pelosi. Fred Barnes’ latest column for the Weekly Standard says that that’s exactly what the Republican leadership is planning. I wish I could take that credit but I suspect they might have thought of this even before I did.

For 2006, the Republican National Committee, the White House, and most Senate and House Republicans are on board with the choice strategy. In fact, some members of Congress are already repeating a phrase first used by Bush in meetings with congressional allies. It’s an assertion that Democrats would “raise your taxes and raise the white flag” in Iraq.

This is a brilliant strategy because of what the 2002 and 2004 elections have told us. When you think about it, the margin of victory wasn’t large but almost all of the tight elections broke Republican. My theory is that, while the margins are close, the differences are gigantic. Both sides have an ample supply of zealous supporters. What turns things in Republicans’ ways is that comparisons make for easy choices.

When you look at Kerry’s foreign policies, they sounded reasonable until they were compared with the logic and simplicity of President Bush’s policies. The result: Tight polls that held steady all fall long. (Remember all the times that big media pundits said something like “The President’s lead is still within this poll’s margin of error”? I do. After about two weeks of it, I told friends this wasn’t distressing because the poll numbers didn’t waver more than a point or two.)

This also points to the irrelevance of the generic poll as to whether people want a Democratically- or Republican-controlled legislature. People aren’t exactly fond of Republicans so they say Democrat on the generic ballot. But then plug in a semi-living and breathing Democrat against a living, breathing Republican and the numbers shift. That point alone is likely causing sleepless nights for Democratic strategists.

At the Southern Republican Leadership conference in Memphis recently, Mehlman spoke repeatedly about “choice” in the 2006 election. Voters, he said, “can see the difference between leaders committed to winning this war [on terror] and politicians who will say anything to win the next election. The war on terror is not the only area where we face an urgent choice in 2006.”

Mehlman asked, rhetorically, if voters “want the chairman of the tax-writing committee in the House to be someone who said that tax increases would spur the economy. Do you want the speaker of the House to be someone who said, less than a year after 9/11, ‘I don’t really consider ourselves at war.’” That, Mehlman said, “is the choice we will make in 242 days.”

That’s why this strategy will ultimately work for Republicans. Earlier today, I had an email exchange with a friend who seemed down in the dumps about these elections. He’s got big concerns about the lack of spending discipline. Certainly, that’s a major issue with GOP activists and worthy of concern. I reminded my friend that, as bad as Republicans were, Democrats wanted even bigger spending. Then I reminded him that a Democratic Senate meant that President Bush’s judges wouldn’t get a fair shake. I reminded him that a Democratically-controlled House meant a Chairman John Conyers starting impeachment proceedings against President Bush the day after the new Congress is sworn in. I should’ve reminded him of a House Armed Services Committee Chairman Murtha but I forgot. I’m certain he gets the picture.

In the end, GOP faithful realize that there’s much to be lost by staying home and casting a ‘protest vote’. Impeachment, judges and tax increases are just some of what a Democratic Congress would attempt to enact.

No Thanks.

Cross-post at LetFreedomRing

This entry was posted on Saturday, March 18th, 2006 at 9:18 pm and is filed under Author: Gary Gross, DNC, Elections, Pelosi. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.