1994 All Over Again?
That’s the crux of Michael Barone’s latest column in today’s Jewish World Review. To say that he doesn’t agree with all the rumors flying back and forth within the media would be understatement.
In this cycle, many reporters have been contemplating the possibility that Democrats will take it back this November. That’s partly because most reporters are Democrats and find that result congenial. More important, Democrats can take control with a net gain of only 15 seats this year, while Republicans needed 40 in 1994 (and got 52).
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Democrats’ chances of taking those 15 seats are not very good, if the voting patterns and political contours that have held steady since the 1995-96 budget showdown continue to prevail. Ordinarily in a decade we see a shift in these patterns. Some geographic regions or demographic groups move to one party or the other, or the whole electorate does. But that hasn’t happened in the past 10 years. In the five House elections starting in 1996, Republicans have won between 49 and 51 percent of the popular votes, Democrats between 46 and 48.5 percent of the popular votes.
The reality is that voting patterns, census results and demographics matter. People can speculate all they want, which is understandable, but in the end, what I call ‘the boring side’ of politics matter alot. That doesn’t mean that I think this will be a great election cycle for the GOP but I’ll trust Michael Barone’s observations on elections anytime.
Besides, I haven’t seen what I consider real polling in ages. The polling we’ve seen this year have been with ‘adults’, one of the most unreliable benchmarks around. In presidential election cycles, polls that test registered are fairly accurate. During midterms, the only reliable polls are of likely voters because turnout is historically lower for midterms.
From 1990 to 1996, the nation’s largest metro areas became more Democratic while rural areas and the South became more Republican. Since then, things have stayed about the same. And this is regardless of whatever problems were facing party leaders like Bill Clinton, Gingrich, and George W. Bush.
The media winds bluster and blow but political pros are watching the technical side of things.
Finally, this shapes up as a turnout election, something that the GOP did very well with in 2004. They’ve implemented a plan that was tested in 2002 and was fully implemented in 2004.
Cross-post at LetFreedomRing