California Conservative

FNC Contributor Andrea Tantaros’ article about the Santelli-inspired Tea Party movement examines whether these events are simply momentary expression of anger against the bailouts or whether they’re events solidifying people’s belief that they’re carrying too heavy a burden and that Obamanomics is the wrong path to prosperity:

As tax day approaches there is a crescendo growing across America in the form of organized protests, also known as tea parties, and the noise is on a path to becoming deafening. Thousands of rallies are planned across the country; one in every single congressional district and larger gatherings slated for cities like New York, Sacramento and Atlanta which hope to boast an upwards of 20,000 participants.

The message is simple: repeal the pork, cut taxes and cut spending. But there is much more at stake than the money. The impact these actions will have on our culture is key.

Those who discount the frustration and fury across America should so do at their own peril, particularly incumbents who voted for the Obama budget. This time anger is being transformed into action. Each person who participates in a Tax Day Tea Party is being asked to organize a group of friends, family and neighbors. These groups will be asked to develop a consensus around two candidates, a fiscally responsible Democrat and Republican that they can unite behind to support in 2010 to unseat their big spending representative.

The anger people are expressing isn’t turning into apathy. Apathetic people don’t gather into crowds of 20,000 people, especially in places like New York and Sacramento, though it isn’t startling in a city like Atlanta. What type of impact are these tea parties having politically? Though he doesn’t mention them specifically, I think Gary Andres’ article says what’s happening politically:

Recent history is instructive. Electoral trends among non-aligned voters are by no means constant. Exit polls reveal Republicans won among independents by three points in 1998 (48%-45%) and again in 2000 (49%-46%). Democrats prevailed narrowly in 2002 (46%-45%) and 2004 (49%-46%). But for Republicans, the bottom dropped out in the 2006 cycle when they lost among independents by a whopping 18 points (57%-39%). 2008 was a little better; but losing non-aligned voters by eight points (51%-43%) still meant further political erosion in both the House and Senate.

Some new indications suggest an improving environment for Republicans among independent voters. The first sign comes from a recent bipartisan poll conducted by National Public Radio (NPR). In a surprising result, the survey shows Republicans and Democrats in a virtual tie on the congressional generic ballot question (”Do you plan on voting for a Democrat or Republican in the next congressional election?”). GOP pollster Glen Bolger points out that the two parties tie despite a six-point party ID advantage for the Democrats. “The reason for the tie is simple,” Bolger writes on his blog. “Independents are moving toward the GOP.” The NPR survey finds Republicans leading on the generic ballot among independents (38%-24%), a result one strategist joked “hasn’t occurred since the Lincoln Administration.” Bolger further notes the Republican position is now preferred among independents on taxes, energy, health care and the deficit.

Let’s factor an independant’s tendencies into this equation. While many independents voted for President Obama, that doesn’t mean they bought into his ideological package. Independents are likely to vote more on who they perceive as competent rather than on whose policies they prefer more.

It simply isn’t an ideolocial vote.

After winning the presidential election and after seeing the size of their majorities in Congress, Democrats read that as proof that the nation had slid dramatically to the left. That’s the Democrats’ biggest mistake.

After proposing monstrous stimulus and omnibus bills, after spending or proposing trillions of dollars on a litany of bailouts, after reading about President Obama’s Cap and Trade tax increase, it isn’t a stretch to think that independents are voting in polls that they aren’t satisfied with the Obama administration’s direction.

In 2006, Democrats campaigned on the slogan that the nation needed to change directions. After the nation bought into that slogan, it was just a matter of time before the election verified what the polls showed.

It’s still far too early to tell but the conditions are developing that might lead to a similar situation in 2010. In this instance, though, it isn’t a stretch to think that independents will change directions by reversing course.

This paragraph from Ms. Tantaros’ column is too powerful to trivialize:

The message is simple: repeal the pork, cut taxes and cut spending. But there is much more at stake than the money. The impact these actions will have on our culture is key. Massive government control is a clear threat to our liberties and our values of American exceptionalism. The argument from Tax Day to Election Day 2010 should be focused on helping voters connect the dots, not only about why we can’t afford to spend money we don’t have or why we can’t trust Washington, but also about how spending and borrowing will cause irreversible damage to our union and put us on a slippery slope toward a European model of stagnate economies, welfare states and mediocrity. Plainly put: the spending and borrowing threatens our greatness.

If Republicans do their job right, they’ll forego the little pissing match statements. Instead, they’ll spend time telling everyone within the sound of their microphone, everyone with a Twitter feed, everyone who works on Main Street, everyone who knows that government in total takes too much of their money, that they’ll cut taxes, stop the bailout mania and exercise fiscal restraint if returned to the majority.

If Republicans are smart, they’ll also start asking whether voters would rather have the option of writing a customized health insurance policy with the assistance of their primary care doctor that’s paid for with a tax credit or if they’d trust a government-run health care system that increases bureaucracy, increases the cost (combine the premiums with the cost of the tax increase needed for the program) and slows the R and D investment in miracle cures.

Showing people that we’re serious about finding cost-savings at all levels of government without cutting important services is a great first step in getting independents to vote for Republicans in 2010.

And to think it started with a single rant by a previously low profile financial reporter. That’s what happens when you get on the right side of an issue.

Technorati Tags: Tea Parties, Taxes, Rick Santelli, Spending, Bailouts, Tax Increases, Democrats, Fiscal Restraint, Health Care, Reforms, Republicans, Election 2010

Cross-posted at LetFreedomRingBlog

This entry was posted on Friday, April 10th, 2009 at 10:34 am and is filed under Author: Gary Gross, Conservatism, Economy, Election 2010, Health Care, Obama, Taxes. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can skip to the end and leave a response. Pinging is currently not allowed.