Strickland In Trouble?
This article suggests that Gov. Ted Strickland might be in trouble for next year’s election:
In testimony to a committee of state lawmakers June 11, state Budget Director Pari Sabety said unemployment in Ohio could peak at 11.5 percent late next year or early 2011. In a worst-case recession, the jobless rate could hit a record 15.4 percent in 2011, Sabety said, basing her testimony on national forecasts by Moody’s Investors Service.
But George Vredeveld, professor of economics at the University of Cincinnati, said there are thousands if not millions of variables that could push the monthly rate up or down, “I don’t know how people can go out like this and make forecasts,” he said Friday, noting that the impact of federal stimulus money coming to Ohio can’t even be factored in yet. Ohio unemployment hit an all-time high of 13.8 percent in December 1982 and January 1983. Comparable monthly statistics are only available back to 1970.
When Strickland took office in January 2007, the unemployment rate was 5.3 percent. The Democrat is up for re-election next year. “Ohio has lost nearly 300,000 jobs on Ted Strickland’s watch,” said Ohio Republican Party Chairman Kevin DeWine of Fairborn. “He promised to turn around Ohio’s economy if we elected him governor, and he failed.”
How can Gov. Strickland feel good when Ohio has lost 300,000 jobs and unemployment rates are at near-record levels? What’s worse is that he’s signed a cap and trade bill that he admits will cause Ohio’s energy costs to rise:
Ohio Gov. Ted Strickland Thursday signed into law the state’s new energy bill, which while everyone says it will lead to higher energy prices in the near term will also pave the way for what a panel of economists, energy experts and advanced-energy employers said could lead to massive job growth if action to turn the tide on global warming is addressed now through a marketplace system for reducing carbon emissions known as cap and trade.
None of this is good news for Gov. Strickland. According to Taegan Goddard’s post, Strickland’s JA Rating has dropped to 43 percent:
A new Public Policy Polling survey in Ohio finds Gov. Ted Strickland’s (D) approval rating is down to 43% and he leads John Kasich (R) by just two points, 44% to 42%, in a likely 2010 contest.
“Strickland has seen a decline in popularity among both Democrats and Republicans. Where previously 70% of voters within his party gave him good marks, now just 62% do. And the percentage of Republicans disapproving of him has increased from 59% to 72%. His numbers with independents are relatively steady.”
John Kasich has worked hard in putting a great organization together. Kasich is also a charismatic, appealing candidate on the stump. In the past, I’ve called him the Tim Russert of the Republican Party. I’ve even advocated for him to be McCain’s running mate.
Most importantly, Kasich’s credentials as a common sense fiscal hawk are impeccable. Bizzyblog has it laid it out in this post:
This sentence in the played-straight AP report should be emblazoned on the forehead of every voting-age Ohioan:
Kasich, a 9-term Congressman from Ohio, was the chairman of the U.S. House of Representatives’ Budget Committee in 1997 that balanced the nation’s budget for the first time in more than 30 years.
No one else in America can make that statement.
Kasich and his committee (with his senatorial colleagues) balanced the budget. Bill Clinton did NOTHING on the spending side to balance the budget except sign the related bills. What Clinton deserves some credit for is getting on board with the supply-side capital gains tax cut in 1997 that created a gusher on the revenue side, a cut passed by the GOP Congress over strenuous objections from some Democrats.
A bunch of new voters have grown up since John Kasich last ran for office in 1998. I suspect that his appeal with young voters will be considerable, especially once they hear about fiscally conservative credentials. Generally speaking, if there’s one thing that’s got young voters worried, it’s Washington’s out of control spending. If there’s anything that Ohioans should be worried about, it’s Gov. Strickland’s record since getting elected in the 2006 landslide. With rising energy prices as a direct result of Gov. Strickland’s cap and trade bill and with unemployment approaching Ohio’s record levels, Ohio natives don’t have alot to feel good about.
These are exactly the types of conditions that turn politicians into one-term wonders. Combine the conditions with a charismatic, appealing opponent and it isn’t difficult to envision a Kasich victory eighteen months from now.
Technorati Tags: Economy, John Kasich, Balanced Budgets, Fiscal Restraint, Job Creation, Economic Growth, Ohio, Republicans, Ted Strickland, Tax Increases, Unemployment, Cap And Trade, Democrats, Election 2010
Cross-posted at LetFreedomRingBlog