PelosiCare and the 2009 Elections
After Tuesday night’s thumping administered by independents and conservatives, I’d think it’d be wise for Democrats living in swing districts to pay attention to their constituents, especially if they attended TEA Parties and townhall meetings. That goes double for those Democrats who are considering voting in lockstep with John Conyers and Maxine Waters, especially if they’ve already voted for Cap and Tax.
Dick Morris says in his NY Post op-ed that last night’s thumping is a “A Deathblow for ObamaCare”:
New Jersey is the quintessential blue state. If it goes Republican, blue state congressmen needn’t worry. Their districts are likely still safe. But when a Republican in Virginia wins by 20 points, it sends a message to red-state Democratic congressmen to take cover.
Polls indicate a declining level of popular approval of the Obama policies (Rasmussen shows his job approval at 46 percent), but to see actual Democrats losing or barely squeaking out victories in solidly blue states sends a far clearer message to the Democrats in Congress.
Until last night, Democratic moderates, the so-called blue dogs, could bask in the light of their candidate’s success in 2008. But now they must hear hoof beats behind them. The party discipline on which Obama depends to pass a health-care program that Americans reject by 42 percent for, 55 percent against (Rasmussen again) will only work if beleaguered Democratic incumbents can wrap themselves in Obama’s cloak and tough out the popular criticism. But the limits of Obama’s drawing power are readily apparent in the Republicans’ 20-point victory in Virginia and the race in New Jersey.
This should tell the 83 Democrats that serve in districts that John McCain won in 2008 that there’s a limit to how much President Obama helps them. In fact, the message that last night’s results tell us is that these red district Democrats had better tread alot more lightly, especially with Pelosicare.
Glenn Reynolds makes a great point about that in his NY Post op-ed:
The good news for Obama is that he doesn’t have to run for re-election for three more years, so he still has a chance to get his feet under him. But for Congress members facing elections in a year, including but not limited to the famous “blue-dog” Democrats, the lesson of this week is that Obama can’t save their seats if the public is unhappy (and, equally, that Obama probably can’t hurt them much, either).
In other words, swing district Democrats are on their own this election cycle. That isn’t as good for them as it might sound. Prior to last night’s elections, these swing district Democrats were likely counting on substantial political cover from President Obama after they voted for unpopular things like Cap And Tax and Pelosicare.
A year ago, that would’ve been a reasonable thing to count on. This year, it looks like a fool’s bet.
The question now becomes more a question of whether swing district Democrats can afford to blindly follow Speaker Pelosi on controversial legislation like Pelosicare. I’m betting that that answer is no. With Speaker Pelosi’s popularity tanking, these Democrats have to feel a little like a Minnesota deer hunter wearing blue jeans, a flannel shirt and a light vest on a stand left unprotected from a northwest wind. In other words, these Democrats likely are feeling more than a little chilly.
Speaker Pelosi has run her caucus like a ward boss. That might get results early on but it’s a great way to earn enemies for future battles. Right now, I’d think that there’s an abundance of Democrats thinking that disobeying the Speaker is a great thing to re-establish their political viability for 2010.
The best way for Democrats to re-establish their independence from Speaker Pelosi is by voting against Pelosicare. Now let’s see if they’re smart enough to make this major adjustment.
Technorati Tags: Elections, Pelosicare, President Obama, Speaker Pelosi, John Conyers, Maxine Waters, Health Care, Cap And Trade, Blue Dogs, Democrats, Independents, Conservatives, Op-Ed, Glenn Reynolds
Cross-posted at LetFreedomRingBlog
November 4th, 2009 at 11:09 am
It will be interesting to see what happens to Pelousy if and when PelousyCare fails in the House. Will the blue-mule jackasses rise up and throw her out of the leadership? Doubtful, because all she’ll have to do is cry “Sexism!” and the spineless lumps of nothing would back off, probably.
But the die will be cast at that point. The only thing she’ll have going for her after next year is that the brainless toadies that comprise her CA district will continue to vote her in (to the detriment, I might add, of the rest of the nation) because she can hide all her ills and still sound like the mindless socialist she is.
November 4th, 2009 at 2:26 pm
Yeah I know, the spin today seems to be, Well you know this was NOT about Obama, this was just a couple state elections, and has absolutely nothing to do with changing the direction of the country and completreing the work we Dems,. were elected to do to save the economy and the country from the ravages of the Bush administration, create . . . er save jobs, and take over the nations health care, blah blah blah blah de blah.
However, there are two facts they cant spin;
#1 Obama is head of their party and their party lost two major state elections.
#2 A lot of people in two states are upset wth the way their states were being run by Democrats.
November 4th, 2009 at 2:30 pm
and by the way, (hint hint RNC)
they may have gotten one more seat in Congress, but that was only because the Republicans had their heads so far up their ass, they needed a plexiglass navel to see where they were going.
November 5th, 2009 at 12:07 pm
Strange that the difference in Democrat/Republican percentages in Virginia from the 2008 election to this election were strikingly similar to the drop in Duh-1’s drop in approval rating from January 20, 2009 to October 30, 2009!?.