Winning back 20 seats in the House and 10 seats in the Senate will stop the Obama plan cold, but it won’t be enough momentum in and of itself. The GOP needs a complete makeover.

Let’s start with 2012 and work backward, using 2004 and 2008 as a model. All Obama had to do to win the 2008 election was to win every state Kerry won in 2004 and add either:

1. Florida
2. Ohio
3. North Carolina + 1 other state
4. Virginia + 1 other state
5. Colorado, New Mexico, and Iowa

Obama had the lead in New Mexico and Iowa from goal line to goal line, so Obama only had to win Colorado. Everything else (including all the other states, Indiana, Nevada, and almost Missouri was gravy).

From a prospective view, had McCain retained Ohio and won either Minnesota, Michigan, Wisconsin, or Pennsylvania, it would have been difficult for Obama to win. In retrospect, he would have won anyway but other factors came into play.

The South used to be the Republican key to victory. Now the Midwest is the Demon Rat key to victory. Republicans MUST retake at least one major Midwest state in order to beat Obama. They must also take back either Colorado or Iowa.

In Florida, Virginia, and North Carolina, voter turnout by whites in favor of the GOP will ensure victory. The same demographic will negate the hispanic vote in Colorado and New Mexico. Republicans also have to worry about losing Missouri and Montana.

Now move back to 2010. To plant the seeds of victory for 2012, the GOP has to focus on these key states. Even if they don’t win House or Senate races, they have to make a good showing.

Healthcare, cap and trade, and the economy may be a big albatross around the neck of the Demon Rats in 2010, but the economy might show signs of life by then (due, of course, to none of their policies). Obamacare (even if passed tomorrow) won’t be effective until 2013 so people won’t know the mistake they’ve made until well after the 2012 election.

Obama will be a two-termer unless we find a heroic figure of equal communicative stature, even if Obama sucks as president. Most of all, we must win the hearts and minds of independent, white, middle-class voters in the Midwest. And we must RETAIN their votes into the future.

Illinois is beyond reach. Michigan is tough. Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Minnesota are the only hopes the GOP has. This pretty much means that Pawlenty must be on the ticket in 2012 either at the top or VP. Romney couldn’t sway Michigan before so it’s doubtful he’ll swing it in 2012. Who have we got from Pennsylvania? Nobody.

Palin is a darling. I love her. But she CANNOT WIN and she must not try. She can be a pivotal player in winning these Midwestern votes, but she doesn’t have the chops to be president. If I had a year and a half to school her in economics, the military, health care, the environment, and foreign policy… maybe. She doesn’t seem to be a quick study.

Huckabee is a great guy, but he doesn’t have the right stuff either. Jindal is dead on arrival. Crist is a turncoat.

There’s a fantastic Congressman - can’t remember his name. He’s young and vibrant, but needs some years of seasoning.

I’m afraid we’re stuck with My Hero, Zero for quite some time. On a positive note, when he’s done screwing things up, the American people will say, “We’ll never make THAT mistake again.”