How Much Trouble Are Dems In?
The first telltale sign that the Democrats are in trouble in 2010 is found in Scott Rasmussen’s polling. Rumor has it that the DNC and the Obama administration have started buying Maalox by the case. Here’s why they’re justified:
Voters remain more confident in Republicans than in Democrats this month on virtually all of the key electoral issues regularly tracked by Rasmussen Reports. But that confidence is not quite as strong as a month ago when the GOP led on all 10.
New Rasmussen Reports national telephone surveying finds Republicans maintaining a double-digit lead on the issue of the economy, 48% to 36%. This is roughly comparable to a month ago.
The Democrats are finally paying the price for pushing their radical agenda. They won’t recover until they stop pushing President Obama’s and Speaker Pelosi’s radical agenda.
The Democrats’ radical agenda, and the resulting bad polling numbers, is having its effects:
Over the last week, three Democratic candidates touted by national strategists abruptly withdrew from their races: Solano Beach Councilman Dave Roberts (running against California Rep. Brian Bilbray), state Rep. Todd Book (running against Ohio Rep. Jean Schmidt) and Tennessee Commerce and Insurance Commissioner Paula Flowers (in the seat held by retiring Rep. Zach Wamp).
In a neutral political environment, the seats held by Bilbray, Schmidt, and the open Tennessee seat would be enticing targets for Democrats. Democrats aggressively contested the first two seats in both 2006 and 2008, and experienced unexpected success in Southern open seats over the last two elections.
But in 2010, defense is the name of the game for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, which is defending several dozens vulnerable freshmen and second-term members, while also protecting veteran members who could find themselves in newfound trouble. It will be a lot more challenging for a first-time candidate running in a tough district to get financial support from the DCCC when the party is worried about defending its own.
Most likely, Roberts, Book and Flowers probably thought that the sour national mood was negatively affecting their campaigns so they said no to running in this environment. Those races aren’t the only ones being affected by the national anti-Democrat mood:
Bart Gordon (D-Tenn.), who didn’t even face a Republican opponent last year, now looks like he could be running against a top-tier challenger in state Sen. Jim Tracy as he vies for a 14th term in the House. Rep. John Spratt (D-S.C.), one of the most influential Democrats in the House, is poised to face a serious challenge from state senator Mick Mulvaney, who has quickly moved up the political ranks in South Carolina. Two leading Republicans are already jumping in to run for the seat of retiring Rep. Dennis Moore (D-Kan.), while no Democrats have yet stepped forward.
If this continues, the Democrats will find themselves in the underdog role of staying in the majority in the House. It’s still too early to predict that but people’s positions are souring, then hardening. The Democrats’ insistence on passing helath care reform while ignoring growing the economy is playing a major role in the national mood.
The conventional wisdom is that the Democrats will be hurt if they don’t pass health care legislation, which is understandable if you’re looking solely at the base. It’s insanity, however, if you factor in independents swinging dramatically against the Democrats. Neither side wins if they only turn out their base. The only way to win big victories is by appealing to independents. Right now, the GOP is doing a dramatically better job of appealing to independents than the Democrats are.
The proof of which way this goes will come on Election Day, 2010. If things don’t improve dramatically for Democrats, President Obama might well be fighting a hostile Congress in 2011.
Technorati Tags: Polling, President Obama, Bart Gorton, John Spratt, Dennis Moore, Health Care, Economy, Democrats, Election 2010
Cross-posted at LetFreedomRingBlog