GOP’s Senate Chances Just Improved
I’ve said from the outset that the Republicans’ chances of retaking the Senate were alot slimmer than their retaking the House. Their odds just got slightly better. It’s now confirmed that Vice President Biden’s son Beau won’t run for his dad’s Senate seat:
The younger Biden told supporters in an e-mail Monday that he will run for re-election as attorney general rather than seek the Democratic nomination for Senate. His decision ends months of speculation on whether he would run for the seat his father held for 36 years.
It also leaves veteran Republican congressman and former two-term governor Mike Castle, one of the most successful politicians in Delaware history, still waiting for a Democratic opponent.
What’s more is that Scott Rasmussen’s polling in Indiana shows Evan Bayh trailing Mike Pence:
Indiana Senator Evan Bayh is another Democratic incumbent who could find himself in a tough reelection battle this fall. A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of likely voters in the state finds that Bayh attracts support from just 44% or 45% of voters when matched against his top potential Republican challengers.
Congressman Mike Pence is reportedly considering running against Bayh. At this time, he attracts 47% of the vote while Bayh picks up 44%. A former Republican congressman, John Hostettler, has already indicated he will challenge Bayh. In that match-up, it’s Bayh with a three-point edge, 44% to 41%.
Several things stand out about Sen. Bayh in that polling. First, he should find it alarming that he’s only getting 44% of the vote in both these polls. That’s pretty pathetic, especially for an incumbent whose seat was previously thought to be safe. Second, I’d be worried that I was leading John Hostettler by only 3 points, especially considering the fact that Hostettler was defeated in the 2006 disaster.
Most importantly, though, I’d be worried about trailing Mike Pence. Pence spent the weekend considering running. These poll results should encourage Pence to run. The chairman of the Democrat Party of Indiana is trying to scare Rep. Pence off by talking about how much CoH Bayh has:
Meanwhile, Indiana Democratic Party Chairman Dan Parker says Bayh has 13-million-dollars already in the bank to campaign.
That’s not something to be taken lightly but I wouldn’t get too worried about that. Pence’s fundraising would be especially strong amongst TEA Party activists. If Scott Brown can raise $1,000,000 a day for a week, Rep. Pence’s fundraising should be prolific. Picking off an incumbent like Evan Bayh certainly provides a great incentive for potential contributors.
While Bayh has a significant CoH advantage, he’s got a serious problem to deal with, too. Sen. Bayh voted for the failed stimulus bill and the health care bill that people despise. Both bills are fiscally irresponsible. In both instances, Sen. Bayh could’ve stood up to his party’s leadership. Both times, he voted with his party’s leadership and against fiscal responsibility.
By comparison, Mike Pence voted against many of President Bush’s spending proposals. He didn’t pull his punches in criticizing those policies either.
Now Sen. Bayh has returned to talking about fiscal responsibility. Unfortunately for him, he’s talking about fiscal responsibility after voting for 2 fiscally irresponsible bills.
Put those things together and what’s obvious is that there’s a significant credibility gap emerging. Pence has walked the walk in criticizing his party’s spending habits. Sen. Bayh didn’t until after the bills were passed. That’s not how you build credibility.
In this environment, it’s difficult to see a positive for Bayh. It’s difficult to see this not being a significant plus in Rep. Pence’s favor should he run against Sen. Bayh.
If Rep. Pence gets in, Sen. Bayh’s seat shifts to leans slightly in Rep. Pence’s favor. That isn’t good news for the DSCC or Sen. Bayh.
Technorati Tags: Evan Bayh, Beau Biden, DSCC, Health Care, Stimulus, Democrats, Mike Castle, Mike Pence, Fiscal Restraint, TEA Parties, Republicans, Election 2010
Cross-posted at LetFreedomRingBlog
January 25th, 2010 at 11:05 am
you have a lot of search-engine-optimization trash in your rss feed. just a word to the wise.
January 25th, 2010 at 1:01 pm
Voters have incredibly short memories, something along the lifetime of a gnat. It will be Pence’s job, should he decide to run, to keep hammering at those Bayh votes, and how much pork was in them that he was willing to go along with, and that the health reform bills passed had nothing to do with reining in the cost of health care to the average American. He also might want to bring up that Bayh was totally against switching his own health care package generously allowed by the government to a reasonable one just like most people in this country get with a good job. And another thing he might hammer away at is what kind of retirement “pension” benefit Mr. Bayh will get.
Yes, I know Mr. Pence will be eligible for the pension and the health care perks, too, but at least he’ll have a leg to stand on in “spitting into the wind” in trying to get them changed.
How dare the arrogancia of the Congress believe that, just because of position, they are entitled to raid the treasury like that!
January 25th, 2010 at 2:16 pm
Carlos, in an ordinary year I would agree with you, that American’s political memory is not only short, but that Americans’ political attitudes are often vapid, ambivalent, or apathetic.
However, this is not an ordinary year. America is waking up to how easily our political freedom, and our right to live our own life, can be taken from them by an over reaching, nosey and intrusive government that seem to think we can be treated like children , and no one will really care.
January 26th, 2010 at 12:35 am
As I understand it, the jackasses will be running to “beat the Bushes” again, so to speak (sorry - I just couldn’t help that one!). I can only hope so, because all the hopey-changey airheads will be out in force for their own favorite causes, which by-and-large leave most ignorant voters cold and at home.
You are right, USN, this is a different year, but only because the people on the right are paying attention and are fired up. Whether that “fire-up” is maintained remains to be seen, but hopefully Duh-1 will maintain his push to take over the country for his own designs and we, the people, will push back even harder.
Word in the news is that focus in D.C. will now shift to inadequate “jobs” bills, with the emphasis on creating or saving government welfare jobs (”service” jobs, according to the jackasses). I hope so, because that’s the single most obvious place to cut in the budget and the one that will keep the economy in the pits the entire year. By election day, if that is their plan, we, the people, will be so fed up with such cronyism and waste that even Michelle the queen may vote against whoever the donks have running in Chicago…
January 26th, 2010 at 7:21 am
Go Pence Go!!!!!!!! As a conservative, I always liked Bayh. I always thought that he was one of the more reasonable Democrats. I was wrong. I was hoping that he would come out on the side of reason and the people in the healthcare debate. Alas, he did not. Pence is a winner in every category - an all around great candidate. I hope he runs. Let the race begin. I don’t live in Indiana, but I would certainly donate to his campaign.