Democrats’ Election Strategy: Whining
John Harwood’s article confirms for me what I’ve thought for some time. Because they likely won’t have a list of accomplishments to run on, the Democrats’ strategy will likely be to whine alot about Republicans being extremists. Based on recent electoral history (2006), that strategy isn’t likely to work.
Few Democrats next year will be able to match the overwhelming campaign spending advantage enjoyed by Mr. Corzine, a wealthy former Wall Street executive. On the other hand, party strategists hope that economic anxiety will ease next year if Washington acts on health care and energy legislation, both of which Mr. Obama calls vital to long-term economic growth.
But Mr. Cook argues that voters will continue to see those initiatives as diversions from immediate concerns over high unemployment. For Democrats to win competitive races next year, he said, “the key thing is to disqualify your opponent on a very personal, individual level.”
Basing my opinion on what I’ve read about the Republicans’ recruits, it’ll be difficult to demonize the candidates. First, candidates that’ve stepped forward are ‘TEA Party approved’, meaning they’ve won support at local TEA Parties. This explains one reason why independents are swinging in the GOP’s direction.
Another reason why this strategy, on a macro level, is doomed for failure is because people are looking for candidates who inspire. There’s alot to be gloomy about these days. Why support someone who ‘inspires’ gloominess? That doesn’t make sense. Republican challengers will be able to talk about what they want to accomplish in Washington for their constituents. Democrat incumbents will have to defend their votes from this session. ADVANTAGE: CHALLENGERS.
“They’re going to have to play really rough,” said Mr. Cook, who pegs Democrats’ chances for holding the House next year at only slightly better than even. “For the average Democratic Congressional incumbent, the opposition researcher will be the most important person in the campaign.”
The opposition researchers will be overrated this year. It didn’t work in 2008 (Think Al Franken). People are starved for people with real solutions to the point that they’re willing to overlook potential scandals if the candidate has an appealing vision for his/her voters. I’m not saying there are alot of GOP candidates that have skeletons in their closets. Rather, I’m speaking about the impotence of personal attacks.
I’ve thought for some time that the ‘failed policies of the last eight years’ line is overrated. It had a certain cache last year but it’s lost its appeal recently, mostly because President Obama’s and the congressional Democrats’ ‘accomplishments’ aren’t seen as successful. Frankly, most people think that the stimulus bill is a failure. They don’t think that a national energy tax is something that will make America healthier economically. In fact, they think Cap and Trade will hurt almost everyone and help very few.
When Democrats whine about their GOP challenger as being extremist, the GOP challenger should immediately and forcefully respond by saying that he’s being attacked because the Democrat doesn’t want the people to know about the Republicans’ pro-growth, pro-prosperity vision for America. The Republican should then use that as a launching point to talk about their positive agenda.
This type of rhetoric from the Fringe Media won’t help Democrats:
Republicans have worked overtime to block Mr. Obama’s proposed solutions on the economy and health care, as became clear last week after the Congressional Budget Office declared that the Senate Finance Committee’s proposal would reduce the budget deficit. Instead of crediting Senator Max Baucus, Democrat of Montana, the committee chairman, with meeting a main Republican objective, the minority leader, Senator Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, said “the real bill will be written by Democrat leaders in a closed-to-the-public conference room.”
That isn’t what Republicans have done, mostly because President Obama hasn’t offered solutions to America’s economic difficulties. He’s proposed enormous spending as a solution. As HotAir’s Allahpundit says, “What could possibly go wrong”???
Had President Obama proposed a bill that focused solely on infrastructure projects and tax cuts for small businesses, we’d be digging out of the hole we’re in. Because President Obama didn’t focus on that, we’re still stuck digging out of economic difficulties.
As I said here, the CBO’s rating of the Finance Committee’s bill as deficit neutral is meaningless:
I suspect that people will be upset with any of the Democrats’ bills, whether it’s the Baucus bill, the HELP bill, one of the bills from the House of Representatives or if it’s an amalgamation of the various bills. All are loaded with major tax increases, all will result in rationing and all will cost people more money than they’re spending now on health care.
Factoring in the plethora of major tax increases, the penalties for not obeying the oppressive mandates and the huge unfunded mandate coming from the “substantial expansion” of Medicaid, I’m confident that people aren’t seeing the various Democratic plans as a solution.
They certainly don’t see Cap and Tax as a solution to their energy woes. They see that as an additional problem, not a solution. To Minnesotans and other northern tier states, Cap and Tax simply means more money going out the door at a time when people’s wallets are stretched thin already.
The Democrats’ ’season of negativity’ campaign strategy won’t work. People are looking for solutions. They aren’t looking for a congresscritter whose main attribute is saying ‘My opponent sucks worse than me. Vote for me.’ What this means is that 2010 is shaping up to be a miserable year for Democrats.
All the whining in the world won’t change that.
Technorati Tags: Taxes, Excise Tax, unfunded Mandates, Medicaid, Individual Mandates, CBO, Cap And Trade, Utility Bills, Unemployment, Economy, Democrats, Solutions, TEA Parties, Republicans, Election 2010
Cross-posted at LetFreedomRingBlog
October 12th, 2009 at 1:34 pm
The good news is that most of the donkey platform will be whining about obstructionism.
The better news is that the few pieces of legislation that do get to the president’s desk will be so terrible that they will be hung around each incumbent’s neck (Democrat or Republican, if he voted for such legislation) like a hat on a peg. That would include the porked-up spending bills, and any fool that votes for anyone that voted for those pieces of legislative misfeasance should be prevented from ever leaving an insane asylum again.
October 12th, 2009 at 7:49 pm
They are whining now because Fox News is acting like real journalists, instead of doting all over them like a mother chicken.