More Troubles For Democrats
Recently, I’ve written alot about the toxic environment that Democrats find themselves in this cycle. We’ve seen alot of retirements recently with more expected to follow soon. Scott Rasmussen’s generic ballot polling explains why Vic Snyder, Marion Berry, John Tanner and Bart Gordon have announced their retirements:
Republican candidates again hold a nine-point lead over Democrats in the latest edition of the Generic Congressional Ballot. The new national telephone survey shows that 46% would vote for their district’s Republican congressional candidate while 37% would opt for his or her Democratic opponent. Voter support for GOP congressional candidates is up slightly from last week, while support for Democrats held steady.
As bleak as those numbers are, two other statistics should trouble the Democrats more. Here’s the first statistic that would get my undivided attention:
Among voters not affiliated with either major party, the GOP leads this week by a near two-to-one margin, 46% to 24%.
That’s the pattern that we’ve seen play out in New Jersey, Virginia and Massachusetts. At this point, something dramatic needs to happen for the Democrats if they hope to stave off an historic defeat. Here’s the other statistic that’s got Democratic strategists drinking Maalox by the jug these days:
When President Obama was inaugurated, Democrats enjoyed a seven-point advantage on the Generic Ballot. Throughout the fall and winter of 2008, support for Democratic congressional candidates ranged from 42% to 47%. Republican support ranged from 37% to 41%. The two parties were very close on the Generic Ballot throughout the spring of 2009, but Republicans pulled ahead for good in late June.
The message behind the statistics tells me that Democrats were fine while President Obama was still in his honeymoon. As soon as they started pushing their agenda, though, things started going sout. When the health care debate started intensifying, the Democrats’ poll numbers started tanking.
Ed points out in this post that it isn’t just Rasmussen that’s noticing the Democrats’ downward spiral:
I think we can safely say that the war on Rasmussen is over, and the Democrats lost. That bastion of conservative thought, NPR, polled 800 likely voters and found that the Republicans had taken a solid five-point lead on the generic Congressional ballot.
Ed then quotes the NPR article:
The poll holds plenty of danger signs for the Democrats. In one indicator studied closely by both parties ahead of midterm elections, likely voters chose an unnamed Republican candidate by 5 percentage points over the Democrat on a hypothetical congressional ballot.
And, Bolger points out, that edge is more pronounced among people whose interest in the midterms is high. “So while it’s a 5-point lead overall, among the most interested voters, that lead doubles,” Bolger says.
There’s proof that this translates into real campaigns, too:
Former U.S. Rep. Pat Toomey has opened up a 14-point lead among likely voters in his bid to deny U.S. Sen. Arlen Specter a sixth term, according to the latest Daily News/Franklin & Marshall Poll.
Poll director G. Terry Madonna said that the results reflect a growing national Republican resurgence mixed with a lack of Democratic enthusiasm as the two parties battle over issues like health care and the economy.
Snarlin’ Arlen is history. Thanks to the TEA Party movement, people are demanding principled leadership this election. Principled isn’t the first word that pops into people’s minds when they think of Arlen Specter. It’s the last word.
If Republicans outwork Democrats this cycle, they’ll have a momentum-shifting election victory. The final results remain to be determined but the outline is taking shape.
Technorati Tags: Polling, Generic Ballot, Scott Rasmussen, Vic Snyder, Marion Berry, John Tanner, Bart Gordon, Retirements, Arlen Specter, President Obama, Democrats, Pat Toomey, Independents, Republicans, Election 2010
Cross-posted at LetFreedomRingBlog
January 27th, 2010 at 8:55 pm
Unfortunately, some of that outline is filled with the likes of Scott Brown (pro-death/abortion and pro-criminal alien) and John-Boy, maverick golden boy of the MSM until he ran against a real jackass.
That said, and with the mood of the country as it is, I suspect some of the RINOs will straighten up and fly right at least until the elections are over, which MAY give Republicans a fighting chance at control of either or both houses of Congress. That is a plus.
And I just finished watching TOTUS and his puppet, POTUS, give the SOTU speech. Watch out! When he says he’s dedicated to bipartisanship legislation, he’s just about to pull out all the stops and start up the firing squads of intimidation and bribery. Watch for Snowe and Collins to break ranks within the week.
January 27th, 2010 at 9:55 pm
He doesnt want to get it.