California Conservative

Reid Wilson’s article isn’t just delusional. It’s denying reality. Wilson makes some traditional, conventional wisdom arguments that aren’t persuasive, starting with this one:

Money: On both a macro level and a micro level, Republicans are seriously behind in the money chase. Most candidates enrolled in the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee’s Frontline program for endangered incumbents have huge cash leads over their rivals, and the DCCC has nearly twice as much on hand as the National Republican Congressional Committee.

Plenty of newly elected Democrats won in 2006 and 2008 while being outspent, but they weren’t outspent by much. Only Rep. Carol Shea-Porter, D-N.H., won after being outspent by more than a 3-1 ratio. Republican challengers will close the gap over the next few months, but they have a long way to go.

Wilson didn’t learn the lesson that he cited. Rep. Shea-Porter won in a wave election though she was clearly outspent. The lesson Wilson should’ve learned is that a different set of rules apply in wave elections than in typical elections. This is, in every credible political expert’s view, a wave election. The only thing left to be determined is the size of the wave.

Here’s another reason Wilson cites:

Turnout: Beyond advertising, money pays for turnout operations, another area in which Democrats have a clear advantage. The Democratic National Committee has pledged $30 million in cash and services to turn out the estimated 15 million voters who cast their first ballots for President Obama in 2008, and the DCCC has put an average of five field staffers on the ground in 75 districts.

If there’s anything that’s been proven througout the primaries it’s that Democrats aren’t energized. Money is important in putting the mechanics in place. Money won’t take the place of enthusiasm, though, to voters. Right now, independents are turning out for Republicans because they’re appalled with President Obama’s radical agenda.

Furthermore, it’s obvious that, in state after state, the GOP’s GOTV operations are operating efficiently.

That radical agenda probably is driving the problems that this Politico article highlights: (more…)