Yesterday, I posted about the Strib’s Minnesota Poll. It isn’t surprising that King and Michael talked about the STrib’s poll during the Final Word this afternoon. King mentioned that the new polling company has been around a long time. If King says that they’re a reputable firm, that’s good enough for me. That means I won’t cast aspersions on the polling company.
What I will do, though, is talk about media polls in general because I think that there are different motives for media polls.
If we’re talking about the AP-Ipsos poll, my first assumption is that it’s used to ‘create news’, which is then cited in later stories that follow a desired storyline. That storyline usually is that Democrats are poised to mop the floor with the GOP.
The way that they achieve that storyline is by vastly oversampling Democrats and undersampling Repblicans. Another trademark of the AP-Ipsos poll is that they all but eliminate independents. I recall seeing an AP-Ipsos poll where 47% of the people sampled identified themselves as Democrats, 37% identified themselves as Republicans, with the remaining 16% identifying themselves as independents.
I first noticed the AP-Ipsos polling in 2005, though they’ve been around longer than that. The reason why I noticed them was that they were tanking President Bush’s JA ratings. I didn’t think President Bush was doing a great job by any stretch of the imagination but I didn’t think he’d tanked that bad at that time. That led me to check the sampling. (more…)
Sometime last night, I got another Obama fundraising letter. after reading it, it’s safe to say that Obama’s audacity is still intact. Here’s what the fundraising letter said:
Friend –
Why would the Republicans spend a whole night of their convention attacking ordinary people? With the nation watching, the Republicans mocked, dismissed, and actually laughed out loud at Americans who engage in community service and organizing.
Our convention was different. We gave the stage to everyday Americans who hunger for change and stepped up to make phone calls, knock on doors, and raise money in small amounts in their communities.
You may have missed it, but we also showed the country a video with the faces and voices of those organizers, volunteers, and donors from every corner of the country.
The organizers that Sen. Obama is talking about have a name. That name is ACORN, the voter fraud specialists. ACORN is more than a little shy in terms of getting in front of a camera. Sen. Obama doesn’t want this connection publicized, either. (more…)
Contrary to E.J. Dionne’s opinion, I don’t think Sen. Obama’s troubles die out when August expires. In fact, I expect them to continue.
Like baseball players, political people are superstitious. In the Democratic imagination, August is the month when Republican presidential candidates destroy their opponents with clever, underhanded attacks that meet with ineffectual responses. Democrats are now petrified that if John Kerry was Swift-boated in August 2004, Barack Obama was Paris-Hiltoned this summer, and there will be no coming back.
Never mind that this analysis is based on the experience of exactly one election. Superstitions are not necessarily rational. This time, Democrats decided that as a political matter, they would end August early by holding their convention and unveiling a running mate during the month of the jinx.
When Sean Parnell first announced that he was challenging Don “Bridge to Nowhere” Young in Alaska’s GOP primary, few people in the ‘Lower 48′ knew much about. I suspect that most, like me, didn’t give him much of a chance. It now appears that Don Young is headed for an involuntary retirement. Check out this endorsement video from Sarah Palin:
Next check out this advertisement put together by the Club For Growth:
A new generation of politicians are climbing the ladder. Sarah Palin and Sean Parnell are prominent members of that new generation. Other members of this generation’s new leaders include Mike Pence, Jeb Hensarling, Eric Cantor and Michele Bachmann in the House, Tom Coburn, Jim DeMint and John Thune in the Senate, Gov. Palin in Alaska, Gov. Jindal in Louisiana and Gov. Pawlenty here in Minnesota.
It’s time for the GOP to start cleaning out the deadwood that’s accumulated in Washington, especially in the House. It’s time we started re-establishing the GOP brand. It’s long past time to start giving people reasons to trust us again.
Click this link to contribute to Sean Parnell’s campaign is a great way to start that transition. The best part is that we’d get rid of a parasite like Rep. Young and replace him with an idealistic, energetic conservative Sean Parnell. (more…)
Rep. Paul Broun defeated his NRCC-supported primary challenger last night. Thrashed him is more accurate. Barry Fleming was the NRCC-endorsed candidate; Rep. Broun was the RedState endorsed candiate. Here’s how Mr. Fleming attempted spinning his thrashing:
An NBC Augusta crew visited Fleming at his home in Harlem Tuesday night.
We asked if he thought the negative ads he ran during his campaign kept him from beating Broun.
“I think there were two things that were very decisive in this race. The first and most important is that there is a deep dissatisfaction, as I sensed, in the Republican base and that’s who comes out to vote in primaries. Mr. Broun did a very good job tapping into that dissatisfaction. Votes that normally would raise eyebrows, he actually turned that into “At least I know what’s going on in Washington,” said Fleming.
The LA Times has posted an article titled “A Short But Sweet Gathering”, referring to the Democrats’ National Convention. Here’s what Doyle McManus writes:
Barack Obama’s campaign and the Democratic National Committee are toying with a convention scheduling change that has been broached before in theory but never seriously considered: cutting the party’s conclave in Denver short by one day to give Obama an extra day of post-nomination bounce in the crowded August calendar.
For the last several decades, when conventions became forums that merely rubber-stamp a presumptive nominee, they have traditionally run from Monday through Thursday. Increasingly, both parties have struggled to offer something of interest during the first couple of convention nights, and the television networks have responded by dramatically reducing live coverage. The only truly significant event has been the nominee’s acceptance speech, delivered during prime time on Thursday evening.
But Obama aides have floated the idea of ending the Denver convention on Wednesday, Aug. 27, instead of Thursday, Aug. 28. (more…)
The Republican Party isn’t the majority party here in Minnesota nor in our nation’s capital for a variety of reasons. I’d submit that the biggest reason why we aren’t the majority party is because we stopped being the party of ideas. Here in Minnesota, though, we’re taking corrective action, action that doesn’t rely on the state party.
Instead, what a group of activists have done is turned the MOB (Minnesota Organization of Bloggers) into the Activists’ News Network. Many of our state legislators stay in touch with what’s important to working class people by reading blogs like True North, Powerline, MDE, SCSUScholars, Let Freedom Ring, Ladies Logic and Shot In The Dark. Our House GOP leadership reads the blogs on a daily basis, as do their staff.
The House GOP Caucus has used this to stay in touch with what’s important with activists. That’s important because the activists/citizen journalists stay in touch with their neighbors, co-workers and friends. I can’t emphasize this point enough. If the GOP wants to return to majority status anytime soon, it has to start with listening to what the people are saying.
It’s my contention that the reason why earmarks have proliferated at the rate they have is in direct proportion to the RNC and other Beltway ‘alphabets’ not having a coherent or appealing agenda. To get an appealing agenda, the RNC must listen to the people living in the Heartland because what’s importatnt in the Heartland is dramatically different than what’s important to the Beltway’s opinion shapers. (more…)
Fred Thompson’s op-ed in this morning’s WSJ is just what conservatives need to hear at exactly the right time. Here’s one of Sen. Thompson’s reminders as to what’s possible when conservatives stick with their first principles:
The power of conservative principles is borne out in the most strong, prosperous and free country in the history of the world. In the U.S., basic constitutional government has been preserved, foreign tyrannies have been defeated, our failed welfare system was reformed, and the confiscatory income tax rates of a few decades ago have been substantially reduced. This may be why the party where most conservatives reside, the Republican Party, has won seven of the last 10 presidential elections.
Americans haven’t tired of having common sense applied to our nation’s most troubling problems. Instead, Americans have recognized that conservative principles haven’t been applied nearly often enough. I suspect that Americans have felt let down that today’s ‘conservatism’ isn’t Reaganite conservatism.
Yet there is still a way to revive the conservative cause. Doing so will require avoiding the traps of pessimism or election-year quick fixes. Conservatives need to stand back for a moment and think about our philosophical first principles. (more…)
Mai Thor’s post at Minnesota Daily would be utterly laughable if it weren’t so dangerous. Thor’s post concludes that requiring photo ID’s before voting is racist. Here’s the scariest part of Thor’s post:
Our Constitution affords us several rights, including the right to vote. It is unfortunate that many people, especially those who run our courts and make our laws, feel that voting is not a right, but minimize it to some sort of privilege, like having a bank account or going to the liquor store, where conditions and technicalities have to be met in order to participate.
There is no denying the race factor in the history of photo ID requirements. After the Civil War, the black vote was suppressed by poll taxes and literacy tests as well as other heinous laws known as Jim Crow. Proponents of photo IDs say it prevents voter fraud, when, in reality, voter fraud is an illusion which originated from an era of racism.
Photo IDs are the poll tax of present day America. Today, the group of individuals that are disenfranchised is much broader. Some of these individuals include seniors, low-income people and those who have disabilities.
Take the bill the GOP-controlled Legislature passed, which would require voters show a form of official ID or a utility bill; another bill would end Philadelphia’s bizarre practice of locating over 900 polling places in private venues, including bars, abandoned buildings and even the office of a local state senator. City officials admit their voter rolls are stuffed with phantoms. The city has about as many registered voters as it has adults, and is thus a rich breeding ground for fraud.
Let’s also examine this post by Stefan Sharkansky, in which Sharkansky quotes from a Washington Post op-ed by Michael Waldman and Justin Leavitt of the Brennan Center. Here’s one of Leavitt’s and Waldman’s assertions: (more…)
I’ve often admired Ed Koch’s thinking. I haven’t always agreed with him but I appreciate his bipartisanship. That bipartisanship is manifested in this column about his life. Let’s look at him through his eyes, starting with this:
I had been told by Congressman and Chairman of the Judiciary Committee, Manny Celler, with whom I discussed how to assist the Soviet Jews and others seeking visas to leave the Soviet Union, that I should visit with Ford. He was soon to become vice president and then president of the United States. At that time, we did not know it. In those days, everyone in the House, on both sides of the aisle, was on a first-name basis. I said, “Jerry, I need your help to bring those permitted to leave the Soviet Union into the country.” His reply was, “I will help, these are good people, they will never go on welfare.” Little did we know how many did. But he helped and saved many lives.
Mayor Koch’s thoughtfulness is as apparent as his priorities. It’s apparent that Koch put a high priority on saving lives. It didn’t matter to him who was willing to help. He simply appreciated anyone willing to step in. That’s the primary characteristic of a statesman. Ed Koch certainly surpasses that threshold with ease. The next part is my personal favorite from this column:
Ford lost to Jimmy Carter. I came to know Carter well.
When he ran for reelection, he asked me to campaign for him in 1980; I was by then Mayor of New York City, and I said that I would vote for him, but not campaign for him because he was then engaging in hostile acts towards Israel. I was popular with the Jewish community and when I would not campaign for him unless he changed his position, he called me to his hotel in New York when attending a fundraiser and said, “You have done me more damage than any man in America.” I felt proud then, and even more today, since we now know what a miserable president he was then and the miserable human being he is now as he prepares to meet with Hamas.