Election Observations
Captain Ed interviewed John Hinderaker at last night’s Talk the Vote event. Here’s the video of that event:
I think John’s right about Norm and Michele. I see them both winning, norm by 5-6 points, Michele by a slightly smaller margin. John makes a totally valid point, saying that Michele has been taught a valuable lesson.
As far as McCain winning this state, I don’t know if he’ll get Minnesota’s 10 EV’s but I’ll say this: If Obama doesn’t stem the bleeding, I think he’ll lose next Tuesday. His Joe the Plumber gaffe has cost him lots of votes in the battleground states. The audiotape of his WBEZ interview from 2001 only amplifies Sen. Obama’s redistributionist tendencies.
What’s significant about the audiotape is that it appeared right when the Joe the Plumber meme might’ve started losing some of its punch. The minute people started listening to that interview was the minute that the Joe the Plumber meme got recharged.
What’s causing more hemorrhaging is their shifting of what I call the ‘$250,000 mantra’. Prior to this week, the Obama mantra was that 95% of Americans would get a tax cut and that “people making less than $250,000 would get a tax cut.” That abruptly changed this week. Sen. Obama said that people making $200,000 or less would get a tax cut. Later, Sen. Biden said anyone making $150,000 or less would get a tax cut.
What makes this important is that each downward shift means fewer people will get a tax cut. There’s lots of votes to be had with people making less than $250,000. The minute that changes to people making less than $200,000, people making $200K have one less reason to vote for Sen. Obama. The minute that changes to people making less than $150,000, people in that income bracket have another reason to not vote for Sen. Obama.
I don’t have the statistics but I’m betting that the group of people making $150,000-$200,000 is significantly bigger than the group making $200,000-$250,000.
It’s also important to note that the vast majority of people making that much money are capitalists, not redistributionists. I can’t deny that there are redistributionists making $150,000-$250,000. I’m merely suggesting that they’re the exception, not the rule.
If that trend continues, the McCain-Palin ticket will be the beneficiaries. This morning’s polling shows the race tightening, suggesting that the momentum is on McCain’s side. What will happen over the last 6 days is impossible to know. You can’t overlook the fact that Obama is still leading. Still, there’s reason for McCain supporters to feel energized.
I’d say there’s about 150,000 reasons to feel energized.
Technorati Tags: Campaigns, Norm Coleman, Michele Bachmann, Joe The Plumber, John McCain, Capitalism, Barack Obama, Redistributionist, taxes, Election 2008
Cross-posted at LetFreedomRingBlog
October 29th, 2008 at 11:41 am
We need to point out that Obama voted against S.B. 2165
November 2nd, 2008 at 3:37 pm
Just a few facts about Obama
If Barack Obama would apply for a job with the FBI or with the Secret Service, he would be disqualified because of his past association with William Ayers, a known terrorist. If he is elected President he would not qualify to be his own body guard! He couldn’t even be a security guard in the mall.
In fact, he could not qualify to be a paramedic, could not hand you your pills in a pharmacy, could not take your blood pressure in the doctorʼs office, own a gun shop, be a liquor store or bar owner, a school bus driver, an insurance agent, a Notary Public, or even a process server in California. And he can’t even get a SECURITY CLEARANCE.
(And the majority of the American people don’t care.)