Could McCain Really Win California?
Over at Politico, Roger Stein is speculating on McCain’s chances at winning California in November. His take is intriguing:
1. If McCain wins California in November, he almost certainly will become the next president of the United States.
The Democratic nominee would find it extremely difficult, if not impossible, to get to 270 electoral votes and victory without California. Sure, the Democrat could theoretically make up for the loss of California (55 electoral votes) by winning both Texas (34) and Florida (27), but how likely is that? Not very.
As the late Lee Atwater, a major architect of George H.W. Bush’s victory in 1988, said, “I can win without California; they can’t, so I want it.”
2. Winning California is going to be very tough for McCain.
On the surface, McCain looks like a reasonably good match for California. He is a relatively moderate Republican, he is strong on the environment, he talks about low taxes and ending waste, he retains a somewhat maverick image, and he could be popular with independents. He is, broadly speaking, in the same mold as California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, a Republican, who will campaign vigorously for him.
But there is a one big difference between Schwarzenegger and McCain, and it has enormous political implications: Schwarzenegger supports abortion rights and McCain does not.
3. Candidates who oppose abortion rights do not win California.
They don’t win at the state level, and they don’t win at the national level. The last presidential candidate who opposed abortion rights and won California was George H.W. Bush, and that was 20 years ago.
And since the Democratic nominee is sure to support abortion rights, McCain cannot win California, right? Not necessarily. He may have one slim chance to win California if Barack Obama is the Democratic nominee.
4. Obama favors giving driver’s licenses to illegal immigrants. McCain opposes it, and this could give McCain the state.
Giving driver’s licenses to illegal immigrants is unpopular in California. Schwarzenegger successfully exploited opposition to such driver’s licenses in both of his elections, and McCain would have a shot at winning California by exploiting it also.
Yes, it would be ironic for McCain, a moderate on immigration, to take a hard line on this issue, but politics often make people do ironic things.
Dan Schnur, who was McCain’s communications director in 2000 and is now a political strategist based in California, says the driver’s license issue could trump the abortion issue when it comes to McCain. ….
This could swing in two directions. On the one hand, abortion-rights people may recognize that it is somewhat unlikely that Roe be overtuned and decide to vote McCain for other re
April 19th, 2008 at 10:03 am
did not Al Gore have a history of opposing abortion rights?
I do not understand why the California GOP just does not chuck the pro-life plank. Preservation of unborn life is a pretty stupid cause to sacrifice votes.
April 19th, 2008 at 10:26 am
“Preservation of unborn life is a pretty stupid cause to sacrifice votes.”
Why are you picking on that?
Somethings are simply more important to some than political whim or fashion. What may be pretty stupid to you, is obviously not to others.
Given the general socialistic shitpit that helpless and clueless Californians seem to enjoy living in, does it really make any difference what, if anything, the Republicam platform stands for at all?
April 19th, 2008 at 1:12 pm
So, Michael, is your contention that a political party should do nothing more than pander? Abandoning principles for political appeal? That seems like a trick the Democrats often play, and it hasn’t served them well for the past several decades.
If your intention is, instead, that people should be willing to compromise on one issue in order to move forward a much broader agenda, I might normally agree. However, Abortion will take on a much reater role in this election, considering the likely changes to the supreme court.
Anyhow, thanks for your thoughts!
April 21st, 2008 at 9:26 am
What kind of principle is protecting the unborn? They do not even vote! (Except maybe in Chicago, but that is far outside California.)One might as well pander to illegal aliens.