Analyzing the 2006 Primary
An examination of the recent primary election has some lessons for California conservatives. It tells the state of both the Republican and Democratic parties as well as the mood of the California voter. Overall, the news is better for Republicans than conventional wisdom would indicate.
First, it showed a divided Democratic Party, especially as highlighted by the bitter, mudslinging race between Treasurer Phil Angelides and Comptroller Steve Westly for the gubernatorial nomination. This was a race in which Angelides represented to old-style California Democrat, beholden to left-wing special interests such as unions, environmentalists and racially centered community groups, and the more ideological left courted by Westley.
The narrow Angelides victory indicates a win for the politics-as-usual wing of the party. Although Westly pledged support for Angelides, it remains to be seen if his wing will actively support Angelides.
One of the most interesting Democratic indicators is the easy win of former Governor Jerry Brown for the attorney general nomination. Brown will always be associated with the far-left wing of the Democrats. His record as governor and plus his run for the presidential nomination speaks volumes for his well-deserved reputation as an extremist.
For any other statewide office, his reputation might not be a handicap. However, he is seeking election to be the state’s top cop. Brown has never been known and a law-and-order type and his most recent record as mayor of Oakland show his efforts to reduce crime in that city have been a dismal failure. It is hard to see how he will convince voters this fall that he is the right candidate to control crime.
By contrast, the Republicans are in better shape than any time in recent years. Arnold Schwarzenegger and Tom McClintock seem to have buried the hatchet and are supporting each other. While conservatives might wish for someone other than Schwarzenegger as the standard bearer, the vision of an Angelides governorship, who has already promised to raise taxes and increase spending, should spur conservatives to support the governor in his re-election bid.
What is very interesting is McClintock’s run for lieutenant governor. He easily won the vote, again indicating that he and the governor have made common cause. McClintock will face Insurance Commissioner John Garamendi in the race for lieutenant governor. Garamendi won his party’s nomination after what was another bitter, mudslinging fight.
Garamendi is a canny career politician who would one day like to be governor. His run for lieutenant governor is endorsed by such individuals and groups as Al Gore, Tom Daschle, Bruce Babbitt, The Sierra Club, the California Teachers Association and the California League of Conservation Voters.
McClintock’s conservative credentials are impressive and there has never been a breath of scandal about his activities and personal life. However, he has been plagued in the past by lack of financial backing. Despite this, he has proven himself to be a tough campaigner capable of winning votes. For example, McClintock ran against Westly for insurance commissioner in 2002. Despite being outspent five-to-one, McClintock came within less than 23,000 votes of winning out of more than 7-million cast.
With proper backing, McClintock could well be the next lieutenant governor. It would also place a strong conservative in position to run for governor in 2012.
The voters are sending several messages. One message is that they are weary of politics. The voter turnout was low, even by off-year primary election standards. If this trend continues, it will be the party activists who will vote in November while moderates and others may well stay home. If the Republicans can maintain their unity and if the Democrats stay divided, it could be a good year for the California GOP.
The voters have also said they are not buying the Democrat’s “Culture of Corruption†message. This was demonstrated in the race for the 50th congressional district where Republican Brian Bilbray beat Democrat Francine Busby for the seat formerly held by the disgraced Randy “Duke†Cunningham. The corruption brush stayed with Cunningham, not to Bilbray or the Republican Party as a whole. Of course, the Democrats have hurt themselves in the corruption and scandal arena with the antics of Representatives William Jefferson, Patrick Kennedy and Cynthia McKinney.
The voters have also said they are not buying much of the Democratic message. The rejection of Propositions 81 and 82 certainly indicate they are fed up with the Democrats tax-and-spend ways. They overwhelmingly rejected a proposed bond issue to provide free preschooling for all California children, despite a questionable multimillion-dollar ad campaign launched by leftist Hollywood activist Rob Reiner. The voters also turned down a tax-the-rich scheme to fund libraries.
Voters also returned embattled Superintendent of Schools Jack O’Connell to office. O’Connell is a strong supporter of exit exams for high schools, a position opposed by the teachers’ union. Voters recognized that there is something deeply wrong with the state school system and that exit exams are one way measuring progress — or lack thereof.
This could well be the year of the activist voter. The voters have shown they are unwilling to raise taxes or borrow more money. They are also fed up with a failing school system.
Then there is the elephant in the living room — illegal immigration. Republicans are divided on how to approach the problem. But at least the GOP recognizes that there is a problem. Democrats openly embrace the open borders crowd, refusing to acknowledge that a problem even exists.
How many voters will go to the polls this year because of this issue alone?
Mainstream pundits are predicting that 2006 will be a bad year for the Republican Party. But in California, at least, conservatives have reason for optimism.
Kip Allen is an award-winning broadcast and newspaper journalist currently residing in Southern California. He is a contributor to CaliforniaConservative.org, and you may read more of his work here.
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The California Primary: Election Coverage
technorati tags: California, Gov. Schwarzenegger, Elections, Primary
June 14th, 2006 at 7:13 am
I recall that Insurance Commissioner Garamendi once proposed a regulation that states that auto insurance companies can not use ZIP codes to determine premiums.
It may seem unfair that people would have to pay higher insurance premiums because thety live in 90210 instead of 92311.
June 14th, 2006 at 8:48 am
A word or two about Jerry Brown: Surprisingly, Brown has been a rather successful mayor of Oakland. In his eight years, he has brought a huge amount of development to downtown Oakland, including thousands of apartments and condos. The downtown actually looks good now, and it’s cleaner and has far less “homeless” people that San Francisco. The Port of Oakland is in a major expansion. Jack London Square, near the port, is expanding and is still a major night-life venue. The state took over the Oakland schools several years ago after the local school board bankrupted the district with absurd pay increases to pacify a radical-controlled teachers’ union. Brown has quietly supported the takeover by essentially never talking about it, much to the dismay of the local school board. The crime issue is a serious problem. Ninety percent of Oakland’s serious crime involves drug gangs and turf wars. The police have tried everything to stem this violence, but as usual, the local community will not cooperate with the cops in solving these crimes. There has been a serious increase in daylight burlaries and robberies, even in the affluent areas in the Oakland hills. The police are understaffed and constantly harrassed by complaints from “community groups” about racial profiling, alledged set-ups by the cops, etc. Many cops spend their day in useless “community policing” where they listen to a long litany of gripes about the “racist” cops and their “harrassment” of the black community. In short, the usual nonsense that keeps cops from being on the street and dealing with bad guys. There are also a number of consent decrees with prohibit the cops from sting operations and infiltration of criminal groups. There isn’t much Brown can do about all this. Oakland is still counting the ballots from last week’s election for mayor. More than likely, Oakland will take a stunning leap into the past by electing Ron Dellums, former Marxist member of Congress in the 60s, to be mayor. Dellum’s stated agenda is to make sure that Oakland retains “ethnic and economic diversity”, which is liberal code-speak for more sudsidizing of the poor, more racial pandering, and more excuses for black-on-black crime. Businesses in Oakland are bracing for the onslaught of new taxes to pay for the usual “social programs” for the ever-troubled “urban youth”. Well, I guess there is the possiblity that a 25-year-old career criminal will be deterred from a life of crime by more recreation centers and rap contests.