Analysis Of L.A. Times Poll For California’s June Election
Folks, the final Los Angeles Times poll prior to the June 6 election will be in the Sunday edition of the newspaper–some of you will get to read my analysis prior to the printing of the poll.
Click here for a copy of the complete poll and tabs. (PDF)
For June, the key results are as follows:
Angelides is ahead of Westly by 3 points
Garamendi has 30%, Speier has 16 and Figueroa
Richman has 25 and Parrish 23
Strickland is at 23 and Maldonado is at 21
Prop 81 (Library bonds) has 55 yes and 38 no
Prop. 82 (Meatheads measure) is at 51 yes and 43 no
The Governors approval is 44 and disapprove 51–about the same as last month
32% would vote to re-elect Arnold and 47% would vote against his re-election–about the same as last month.
Brown and Dunn have significant leads and should win their nominations easily.
The margin of error on the Democrats is 3 and the GOP is 5.
Important for the Governor, last month the GOP gave him 75% approval, this month it is 70%
When pitted against each other, Westly beats Arnold 50% to 40% and Angelides vs Arnold is 46 for Phil and 45 for Arnold.
Interestingly Richman is pulling more of the conservatives and Parrish is pulling the liberals and moderates. Based on normal GOP primary turnout, Richman should win this one easily.
Even though Strickland has only a two point lead, he should win rather easily as well due to the conservative nature of the primary vote.
The big news is the Governor. He is losing GOP support, those voting for someone else is almost 50% and Westly has a serious lead on him. Looking t the poll it is clear why the governor is having trouble. As he is picking up Democrat and Independent support, he is losing GOP support. As has been mentioned numerous times in this space, for the Governor to win, he needs a strong GOP vote. Until he provides a GOP agenda, he can not win. Note in the cross tabs the one special interest giving him a plurality of support are the environmentalists. At the end of the day, can he really count on those folks voting for him?
The big issue of the day, for both sides is illegal aliens. He could win on that issue by taking a decisive stand. He did not take the opportunity to do so while President Fox was in Sacramento, but it is a long way to November. While the budget will be passed on time, it is still 33% or $25 billion larger than it was three years ago, and the deficit, in current year revenues, when you include the unfunded pension and health care liabilities and minus the $9.4 billion “surplus” from last year, the real deficit is still close to $20 billion for 2006-7.
My prediction for election day is that the Democrats will get pragmatic and nominate Westly because he is clearly the candidate that has the best chance of defeating Arnold. That would be a tough race for the Governor and the GOP, one which we must win. But it is up to the Governor to begin to reach out, with actions, not words, to the GOP base.
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Steve Frank is the publisher of California Political News and Views and a Senior Contributor to CaliforniaConservative.org. He is also a consultant currently working on gambling issues and advising other consultants on policy and coalition building.
Read more of his work here or at his blog.
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