This Is the Biden Bounce?
According to this CNN article, the Biden Bounce is a flop:
The first national poll conducted entirely after Barack Obama publicly named Joe Biden as his running mate suggests that battle for the presidency between the Illinois senator and Republican rival John McCain is all tied up.
In a new CNN/Opinion Research Corporation poll out Sunday night, 47 percent of those questioned are backing Obama with an equal amount supporting the Arizona senator.
“This looks like a step backward for Obama, who had a 51 to 44 percent advantage last month,” says CNN Polling Director Keating Holland. “Even last week, just before his choice of Joe Biden as his running mate became known, most polls tended to show Obama with a single-digit advantage over McCain,” adds Holland.
The conventional wisdom is that the first big decision that presidential nominees are judged on is who they pick as their running mate. I pointed out here that picking Biden got one of the worst+/- ratings in recent history:
This results in Biden potentially having a net positive impact on voter support for the Democratic ticket of +7 percentage points, small by comparison with other recent vice presidential selections.
- A net 17% of nationwide registered voters said they were more likely to vote for John Kerry in 2004 on the basis of his selection of John Edwards as his running mate (24% more likely and 7% less likely).
- A net 12% of voters reported being more likely to vote for Al Gore in 2000 on account of his choosing Joe Lieberman (16% more likely and 4% less likely).
- A net 18% of voters indicated they were more likely to vote for Bob Dole in 1996 on the basis of his choice of Jack Kemp to complete the ticket (26% more likely and 8% less likely).
- A net 25% of voters were more likely to vote for Bill Clinton in 1992 on account of Al Gore (33% more likely and 8% less likely).
I followed up by predicting that this would be the high water mark in terms of favorable/unfavorable ratings on Sen. Biden. While I consider Sen. Biden to be an honest, hardworking man, I also consider him to be a gaffe machine. That will become more apparent as the campaign gets into full swing.
The CNN poll is cause for alarm in another sense. Sen. Obama’s dropped 4 points while Sen. McCain gained 3 points in a month. If Sen. Obama doesn’t get any appreciable momentum coming out of this convention, then there’s reason for Sen. Obama’s campaign to start panicking, if they aren’t panicking already. Here’s another reason for Team Barry to panic:
Sixty-six percent of Clinton supporters, registered Democrats who want Clinton as the nominee, are now backing Obama. That’s down from 75 percent in the end of June. Twenty-seven percent of them now say they’ll support McCain, up from 16 percent in late June.
“The number of Clinton Democrats who say they would vote for McCain has gone up 11 points since June, enough to account for most although not all of the support McCain has gained in that time,” says Holland.
Hillary gathered 18 million votes this election season. If one third of the people that voted for her won’t back Sen. Obama, that’s 6 million votes. That’s bad enough but it gets worse: 4.5 million of Hillary’s voters plan on voting for Sen. McCain. It’s one thing to have 6 million voters sit the election out. It’s another to lose 6 million potential votes while your opponent picks up 4.5 million votes.
I’ve said it before and I’ll repeat it again: the Biden pick was a desperation move that won’t help the ticket. Picking Sen. Biden didn’t impress voters. That’s another mark against Sen. Obama.
Technorati Tags: Polling, Bounce, Joe Biden, Barack Obama, John McCain, Hillary, Election 2008
Cross-posted at LetFreedomRingBlog