According to this CNN/Opinion Research poll, many of Hillary’s supporters aren’t in a forgiving mood. This despite the Hillary-Obama kiss-and-make-up appearance in Unity, NH. Here’s one of the poll’s most interesting findings:

A growing number of Clinton supporters polled say they may stay home in November instead of casting their ballot for Obama, an indication the party has yet to coalesce around the Illinois senator four weeks after the most prolonged and at times divisive primary race in modern American history came to a close.

I wouldn’t expect the Clintons to work overtime to correct this problem. They’re eyeing a 2012 run against John McCain. The last thing they want is a President Obama. That isn’t how they want their legacy to read.

This might be the bigger threat to Sen. Obama:

According to a CNN/Opinion Research Corp. poll released Friday, the number of Clinton supporters who plan to defect to Republican Sen. John McCain’s camp is down from one month ago, but, in what could be an ominous sign for Obama as he seeks to unify the party, the number of them who say they plan to vote for Obama is also down, and a growing number say they may not vote at all.

I never expected all those people who told exit pollsters that they’d vote for McCain to vote for McCain. I figured that alot of the pro-choice crowd to make their way into Obama’s camp. I’m equally confident, though, that alot of the blue collar workers that voted for Hillary will vote for Sen. McCain.

The part that’s got to have David Axelrod worried is the amount of people who say that they’ll stay home. That’s where the divisive nature of this presidential campaign is most visible. This pro-Hillary website makes it abundantly clear where they stand:

Party Unity My Ass - PUMA

Here’s the “action plan” for PUMA:

1.) Dissociate yourself from the party. Tell them you will not be a party to its self destructive behavior.
2.) Reflect on your values. Read the credo at the top of this site and create at better one. Keep the language general and inclusive. Concentrate on universal truths and beliefs. Avoid wordsmithing.
3.) Stick together. We are powerful as a unit if we do not fall victim to the psychological warfare that is about to be directed at us. Turn off the media. Avoid conversations with trolls. Stand firm and do not yield.
4.) Remember that there is a better alternative. Hillary Clinton is the strongest candidate for the party and the nation. She has a lot of support out there. The nation will rally around her if we let them know we are not giving in. We must not let her concede one inch. Stand firm. Send her your good thoughts. Send her money. Do not give up.
5.) Spread the word.

This might explain alot of CNN’s polling. It’s obvious that a significant minority of Hillary’s voters were Hillary-Only voters. These Hillary-Only voters are intensely steadfast in their support of Hillary. A smooth presentation won’t win these voters over. In fact, I suspect that alot of them can’t be won over.

Many a pundit says that states like Georgia, North and South Carolina and Arkansas are possible Obama pickups. Had there not been such a divisive primary, that still would’ve been an uphill fight because the Hillary-Only voters would still be a factor.

But the question remains whether Obama can win enough Democrats without Clinton as his No. 2. “If he doesn’t pick her, a later stage of grief is depression and then acceptance,” Schneider said. “In the end I expect Clinton supporters will accept Obama, because they will listen to Sen. Clinton, who has said the stakes are too high for Democrats to sulk.”

The reality is that Sen. Obama doens’t connect with blue collar workers. The RNC won’t let voters forget Sen. Obama’s SF fundraising comments. They’ll remind voters that Sen. Obama doesn’t think highly of their values.

As I pointed out here, Obama suffers from being perceived as a foreign policy lightweight. That’s verified by all the major polling, too.

There will be some coalescing around Obama’s candidacy. The question that’s still lingering is how much coalescing will happen.

Technorati Tags: Obama, Hillary, Bill Clinton, Foreign Policy, Election 2008

Cross-posted at LetFreedomRingBlog

1. Good article.

   Granted they had a bitter and drawn out primary process which may heal in time, but it’s still good news for conservatives. It would be funny to see McCain point out Obama’s foreign policy inexperience and how it isn’t up to Hillary’s level - now that would get PUMA going.

   Comment by Goldwater — July 5, 2008 @ 10:26 pm

2. I think that the Hilary people are not going to go with Sen. Messiah Barack, no matter what. He is a LIGHTWEIGHT, period. But a dangerous one and one that has a good deal of the public hoodwinked. Sen. “F— You” McCain has got to get aggressive. Don’t count on all those Hilary voters. Concentrate on the blue-collar ones. They do not trust nor like Sen. Messiah Barack. And, for all the talk about conservatives NOT getting behind Sen. “F— You” McCain, there have been some great development in the last week. It is going to be easier than thought. A very good post.

   Comment by Mark J. Goluskin — July 5, 2008 @ 11:26 pm

3. I was in DC at the National Building Museum on June 7, the morning that Hillary declared her support for Obama. Trust me: That room was filled with very angry people. Despite the number of Obama supporters who shouted their support each time their messiah was mentioned, there were plenty of Hillary supporters there who were clearly not impressed. It’s already too late for Obama to pick Hillary. By not doing so immediately, he showed that he’s afraid of Bill Clinton. By doing so now, he shows that he’s afraid of John McCain. Hillary will not be the VP, and yes, she’s probably eyeing 2012. The smart thing would be for John McCain to select Hillary for his running mate. That would set her up to run as a Democratic incumbent VP in 2012 against a new GOP candidate since McCain is likely to stick around for only one term.

   Comment by Zen Man — July 6, 2008 @ 10:33 am

4. One thing about Democrats, you get one shot at Pres. and if you dont get it - its adios time. Unless your a Harold Stassen. Look at all the one timers since Stevenson: Humphrey, Mc Govern, Mondale, Dukakis, even Al Gore the wonderful, Kerry, . . .

   Comment by T.A Gray — July 6, 2008 @ 1:13 pm