McCain the Favorite?
That’s the gospel according to Robert Novak. I’m not buying into that because of this statistic:
Voters who supported McCain and those who supported projected runner-up Romney differed significantly on what issues they feel are most important, exit polling shows.
Forty-six percent of those who supported McCain ranked the war in Iraq the most important. Meanwhile, voters who supported Romney overwhelmingly felt immigration was the most important issue.
McCain has been a staunch supporter of the war in Iraq, but co-sponsored comprehensive immigration reform legislation that drew the ire of many conservatives in his party. The legislation failed to pass Congress. Romney has been taking a tough stance on immigration.
When I read that last night, I said that that says everything about where McCain flames out. Immigration is his Achilles Heel, harming him far more than his involvement in the Gang of 14 or McCain-Feingold. It won’t play well in the Heartland, where illegal immigration is imposing severe financial burdens on taxpayers.
Here in Minnesota, illegal immigration is contributing to the dramatic rise of property taxes because schools are becoming overburdened. Nationwide, the effects of illegal immigrants visiting ERs is driving health care costs through the roof.
Here’s where I think Novak goes wrong:
McCain won a majority of registered Republican voters here as well as New Hampshire independents who voted in the GOP primary (as he did in 2000 when he swamped George W. Bush). Romney’s attacks on McCain’s liberal immigration policies were popular with Republican voters, but did not resonate with McCain’s independent base.
McCain won New Hampshire because their Republicans aren’t as conservative as South Carolina Republicans. And once Michigan is in the past, independants won’t be able to prop McCain up.
While McCain and Romney are slugging it out in Michigan, Fred will be connecting in South Carolina, putting McCain, Romney and Huckabee at a slight disadvantage there. The northern momentum isn’t likely to have a big effect in South Carolina.
South Carolina comes after that on Jan. 19, with Huckabee running in his first Southern primary. But there are substantially fewer evangelicals in South Carolina than Iowa. McCain’s South Carolina campaign is led by Sen. Lindsey Graham, who has recruited much of the 2000 organization.
Lindsey Graham’s support isn’t as impressive as people are predicting. He’s tied to the Gang of 14 and comprehensive immigration reform like McCain. That’s why South Carolina’s Republicans hoped to find a primary challenger to run against him this year.
The truth is that McCain’s maverick streak doesn’t play well within the GOP. That will become painfully apparent in the next 3 weeks.
Technorati Tags: McCain, New Hampshire, South Carolina, Lindsey Graham, Immigration, Gang Of 14, Election 2008
Cross-posted at LetFreedomRingBlog
January 9th, 2008 at 11:52 am
Interesting comparison on who the winners in NH see as the enemies of America.
To Mc Cain, the enemy is Islamic terrorism.
To Hillary, the enemy is drug companies, insurance campanies, oil companies, and student loan bankers.
January 9th, 2008 at 5:07 pm
No thanks to McCain or Lindsey Gr’amnesty’.
January 10th, 2008 at 1:12 pm
Ever wonder why McCain is so enamored of illegal aliens? The answer could be his family business - or more accurately, his wife’s family’s business: they own one of the largest Budweiser distributorships in Arizona. Illegal Mexican aliens don’t drink merlot or cosmopolitans. They drink….beer. And lots of it. What McCain is up to is protecting his financial health. Period.