Hillary’s Campaign Ends Today
If you believed Zogby International’s polling, the only conclusion you could draw is that today is the day when Hillary’s campaign comes to a screeching halt. Fortunately, I haven’t trusted Zogby’s polling for quite some time. Here’s what ZI is saying about the North Carolina and Indiana primaries:
UTICA, New York—On the strength of good polling numbers on the final day before the primary elections in Indiana and North Carolina, Barack Obama of Illinois holds a convincing lead in North Carolina, but the race is simply too close to call in Indiana, the latest Zogby two-day telephone tracking poll shows.
The pair of surveys of the Democratic presidential contests shows Obama with a significant 14-point lead in North Carolina, winning 51% support to Hillary Clinton’s 37%. Another 12% said they were either favoring someone else or were as yet undecided. In Indiana, the race is clear as mud, as Obama holds a statistically insignificant lead of two points, winning 45% support to Clinton’s 43% support, with 12% either undecided or favoring someone else.
ZI used to be a respected polling company. It hasn’t been reliable in quite some time. To believe ZI’s polling, you’d have to believe that Hillary’s support amongst blue collar workers has disappeared in Indiana. I don’t believe that for a minute. I may have been born at night but it wasn’t last night.
Simply put, ZI’s indiana numbers are worthless because they buck multi-state trends.
Drudge is reporting that Hillary has thrown in the proverbial towel in North Carolina:
Hillary Clinton’s inner circle now fears a stinging defeat is likely in North Carolina.
“Look, we worked hard and gave it our best shot, but the demographics, well, they are what they are,” a top campaign source explained to the DRUDGE REPORT as voting began Tuesday morning.
The campaign now believes a 15 point loss, or more, would not be surprising. Her team will work hard throughout the day to lower all expectations in North Carolina.
The campaign hopes media attention will stay fixated on the competition in Indiana, where 72 delegates are on the line, and Clinton internals show a victory!
I don’t doubt that Drudge is accurately quoting Hillary campaign officials. I’m skeptical of these quotes because I expect it’s part of Hillary’s attempt to lower expectations. What better way of lowering expectations than to ‘admit’ that you’re about to get blown out of the water?
It isn’t worth paying attention to Hillary’s spinmeisters or ZI’s polling.
Technorati Tags: Hillary, Obama, Polling, Primaries, Election 2008
Cross-posted at LetFreedomRingBlog