California Conservative

Everything you need to know about the effect Sarah Palin is having on the race is summed up in this Washington Times article. You can’t get more explicit than this:

Despite the talk about a changing electoral map and new strategies, Barack Obama is pulling back from his 50-state plan as John McCain has solidified Republican support, turning November’s presidential election into a contest for the same handful of states that have swung the last two contests.

The first round of post-convention polling shows Mr. McCain, in picking Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin as his running mate, has enthused Republicans. Meanwhile Mr. Obama, the Democrats’ nominee, is pulling back resources from Georgia, a state he once boasted he would flip Democratic; is stepping up efforts to hold Democrats in Pennsylvania and Michigan; and is showering attention on Ohio, the lynchpin in Republicans’ 2004 victory.

“The Republican brand has been revived, and the conservative base has been solidified,” said pollster John Zogby. “McCain has had a few good weeks, so now what we have to do is see if Obama can come back because it is still very competitive.”

The only change I’d make to this article would be to modify Mr. Zogby’s last quote. Here’s how I would’ve characterized it: “Sen. McCain has strung together a series of impressive weeks recently which started with Steve Schmidt’s arrival, which them got strengthened by the House Oil Party, then which got the ultimate boost when he picked Sarah Palin as his running mate.”

Let’s be clear about this: this isn’t the ticket Democrats wanted to run against. Sarah Palin is getting rock star treatment but there’s a difference between Barack Obama and her. That difference is that she’s got a record of accomplishments in getting rid of corruption within her party. as people focus more and more on her, don’t think that they won’t notice the difference.

This shouldn’t be ignored either:

No Republican has won the presidency since Abraham Lincoln without carrying Ohio, but a Quinnipiac University Poll showed Thursday that Mr. Obama had lengthened his lead in Ohio by 49 percent to 44 percent, compared with a narrow 1 point lead in its Aug. 26 survey. That’s the reverse of a Fox News/Rasmussen poll earlier this week that found Mr. McCain with a seven percentage point lead.

I’m betting that the Quinnipiac University Poll is flawed. It’s the only one showing Sen. Obama leading in Ohio less than the margin of error, with the Strategic Vision and University of Cinncinnati poll showing Sen. McCain leading by 4 points, with the FNC/Rasmussen poll showing McCain leading by 7. If Sen. Obama can’t connect with blue collar workers in Ohio, something that I doubt he’s able to do, Ohio will stay in the GOP’s column.

Mr. McCain announced Mrs. Palin’s selection as running mate in Dayton, Ohio, two weeks ago, drawing a crowd of 10,000. And in campaigning this week in Lebanon, Ohio, the two drew 16,000. “We’re confident that the McCain-Palin agenda of shaking up Washington, with a record to support it, will make the difference in the fall,” said spokesman Tucker Bounds.

Gov. Palin will be a hit in Ohio, as will John Kasich, who’s been working the state hard since early spring. Gov. Palin and Rep. Kasich connect with blue collar workers in ways that Sen. Biden and Sen. Obama can’t.

I’m not going out on a limb with this prediction: Sen. Obama won’t be president if he can’t flip either Ohio or Virginia. At this point, both races will be tight but I’d give the McCain-Palin ticket the advantage in both states. McCain’s appeal to veterans in Virginia will be substantial, as will retiring Sen. John Warner’s support. The combination of Gov. Palin and Rep. Kasich campaigning in Ohio will likely be enough to push him over the top.

In a briefing for reporters Monday, Obama campaign manager David Plouffe said they expected to hold all of the states won by Mr. Kerry in 2004, which gave him 251 electoral votes out of the 270 needed to win.

I don’t think Mr. Plouffe’s predictions will come true. One state that I expect to flip back into the GOP column is New Hampshire. Though that state’s undergone some changes, with many from Massachusetts moving there, the reality is that they’re moving there to get away from Massachusetts’ oppressive taxes. Sen. Obama’s tax policies aren’t likely to play well there. Couple that with the fact that Sen. McCain is well-loved by voters all across New Hampshire and I think you’re looking at that state flipping.

I still think that McCain-Palin will flip either Pennsylvania or Michigan, with Michigan the more likely of the two. There’s still alot of work to get done between now and Election Day but I’d much rather be in the Sen. McCain’s shoes than in Sen. Obama’s.

Technorati Tags: Palin Effect, John McCain, Ohio, John Kasich, Virginia, John Warner, New Hampshire, Barack Obama, David Plouffe, Election 2008

Cross-posted at LetFreedomRingBlog

This entry was posted on Friday, September 12th, 2008 at 5:03 pm and is filed under Author: Gary Gross, Election 2008, Energy, McCain, Obama, Palin, Taxes. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can skip to the end and leave a response. Pinging is currently not allowed.