Critiquing the AP’s Electoral Map
Liz Sidoti’s latest article paints a picture that’s rosier for Democrats than I think is warranted. It’s titled “Democrats Favored in Electoral Map.” Three months ago, I could’ve bought into a number of things that Ms. Sidoti says. That’s long before the Democratic nomination process turned into a bloodbath. Here’s Ms. Sidoti’s picks for potential Democratic opportunities:
Three Western states—Colorado (9), Nevada (5) and New Mexico (5)—appear obvious targets for Democrats given their gains in the region, sharp population growth and large numbers of swing-voting Hispanics. But McCain, a four-term senator from Arizona, does well among those voters, too; his Senate support for an eventual path to citizenship for illegal immigrants could help.
To the east, Iowa (7) holds promise for the Democrats; Republicans narrowly put it into their column in 2004 after years of Democratic dominance. Both Obama and Clinton competed here during the primary. McCain’s opposition to ethanol subsidies complicate his chances, nor is he a favorite of evangelicals. Though less likely to change hands, Missouri (11) is a perennial battleground.
McCain also must defend the two vote-rich prizes that decided the past two elections.
Ohio (20), a bellwether that tipped the race to Bush in 2004, may be poised for a switch, with a rash of job losses, high numbers of Iraq casualties and a series of Republican statewide political defeats in including the governor.
Florida (27), which put Bush in the White House in 2000 and voted for him again in 2004, will certainly be hard-fought, given its electoral treasure chest. Its demographics are tilting more Republican, though, and Obama has fared poorly in the primaries among Jewish and Hispanic voters. Clinton may have a better shot.
Virginia (13) is a case where Obama, who is black, might play stronger than Clinton because of the state’s large black population. The state moves into the competitive category given Democratic gains fueled by the growing Washington suburbs. Virginia also is home to large communities of military veterans who may have an affinity for McCain, a former Navy pilot who spent more than five years as a prisoner of war in Vietnam.
What Ms. Sidoti isn’t taking into account is Obama’s weakness with blue collar Democrats. When this process started, he held his own with these voters. Following the revelations about Pastor Wright, Bill Ayers and his San Fransisco fundraiser speech, he’s gone from golden boy to full toxicity with these blue collar workers. That puts Ohio off-limits. It doesn’t help Obama in Florida that the head of Hamas in America is endorsing him. Whether Obama wants that endorsement or not, that turns Florida’s Jewish population against him. Without that, Florida is off-limits, too.
Ms. Sidoti is right in identifying “Wisconsin (10) and Michigan (17)” as having “high numbers of Reagan Democrats that McCain could attract.” She’s wrong, though about this:
But voters in all three states are reeling from economic woes, and that works in the Democrats’ favor.
Michigan’s economy tanked because of Democratic Gov. Jennifer Granholm’s policies, especially her tax increases. That certainly doesn’t work in Obama’s favore. Whatever he’ll gain in strong Muslim voting, he’ll lose with Reagan Democrats. If Obama can’t erase his elitist image, this state will flip into the McCain column. Here’s another observation I don’t totally agree with:
It’s been 20 years since Pennsylvania (21) voted Republican. Further complicating McCain’s chances: The state’s economy is bad and many Pennsylvanians have died in Iraq, the war he staunchly supports. Still, conservative swaths that are home to right-leaning Democrats could give McCain an opening. As usual, the Philadelphia suburbs figure to be pivotal.
Again, the state’s been run by a Democrat since 2002. Ed Rendell is popular, which should help Sen. Obama. The problem is that 23 of the 68 counties in Pennsylvania gave Obama 35-45% of the vote. Twenty-nine other counties gave him 25-35% of their vote. That isn’t the base that I’d want to start from. That’s alot of catching up to do and I’m not certain that it’s possible.
The bottom line is that Democrats are in trouble if Obama is their nominee. According to several maps I’ve seen, McCain starts with a big base, something in the 260 electoral vote range. That doesn’t leave much room for error for Obama. He’d have to run a near-perfect campaign, something that I can’t picture. That also means that a perfect storm of Jeremiah Wright disappearing, his elitism vanishing and his gaining strength with Reagan Democrats would have to happen.
That’s possible but I’m not betting the ranch on that happening.
Technorati Tags: Obama, Jeremiah Wright, John McCain, Reagan Democrats, Election 2008
Cross-posted at LetFreedomRingBlog
April 27th, 2008 at 9:58 am
Two things go against Obama in Pennsylvania.
While in the Illinois Senate, he opposed the Induced Infants Liability Act. Pennsylvania Democrats have a reputation for opposing abortion rights and enough of them will refuse to vote for Obama that it will be quite a significant factor in the general election.
And then of course there is his belittling of people who are religious or who own guns . It cost him Pennsylvania in the primaries , and it will cost him Pennsylvania in the general elections.